The Seattle Mariners had very little to be excited about last season. Playoffs were out of the picture quickly, Robinson Cano had a horrible first half to the season and the injuries continued to pile up as the season progressed. One player who excelled more than anyone could have imagined was Nelson Cruz.
There were high expectations for Cruz after his remarkable 2014 season with the Baltimore Orioles. His All-Star appearance, 40 HRs, 108 RBIs and .271 AVG gave Mariners fans a lot to be hopeful for. His four-year, $57 million contract worried pessimists, considering he was 34 years old at the time. Moving to spacious Safeco Field didn’t bode well for him either.
Yet somehow he overcame all odds and performed even better in 2015. He was once again an All-Star, as well as performing arguably better at the plate, with 44 HRs, 93 RBIs and an average of .302. He also won the Silver Slugger in 2015, the only one the Mariners have won since Cano in 2013.
Expecting Cruz to perform at that level in 2016 would be a mistake. His last two seasons have been well above his normal production the previous three years. His averages for 2011-13 were .263, .260 and .266, his home run totals below 30 and his OBP was 20-50 points lower, depending on if you are comparing it to 2014 or 2015.
Cruz also turns 36 in July, so he is definitely past his prime according to the baseball world. With his age and the new crop of outfielders the Mariners have gotten this season, his time as a DH is sure to increase this season as well. Usually that would be seen as a good thing, preventing injury by not having Cruz in the field as much. Unfortunately, Cruz hit considerably better last season when he was in the field rather than playing DH.
All of these things point to Cruz not being able to keep up with the incredible pace he set the last two seasons. Cruz will still be a major part of the offense, as well as contributing to the Mariners as one of the only power hitters left on the roster. A major dip in production isn’t likely to happen this season, but it could by the time his contract is finished.
Cruz will continue to produce as the No. 4 hitter in the lineup, but I highly doubt he hits 40-plus homers again or gets anywhere near a .300 average. It wouldn’t be too optimistic to think of him as a 30HR, .270 type hitter in 2016. His best years have passed though, and at age 36, the Mariners should be happy to get two more useful years from Cruz.
