Predicting the Utah Jazz’ 2014-15 Win Total

By Ryan Aston @mrmarykateolsen on October 23, 2014

With a new coach in Quin Snyder, a young roster featuring the No. 5 overall pick of the 2014 NBA Draft, Dante Exum, and an increased focus on defense and floor spacing, there is a lot to be excited about entering the 2014-15 season for the Utah Jazz. But coming off a season in which the team only managed 25 wins and finished at the bottom of the Western Conference, it’s hard to say, with any confidence, that Utah can make major strides in the standings this year.

There is reason to be hopeful, however, and one needn’t look further than the club’s preseason results so far to find it. As of this writing, the Jazz are 5-2, with wins over the Oklahoma City Thunder in OKC and the Los Angeles Clippers. Neither team was at full strength, but the Jazz nearly beat the Clips just days after their first meeting on a night when Doc Rivers employed a regular season rotation. Still, it’s not so much the teams that Utah has defeated in exhibition as much as how they’ve beaten them that’s impressive.

As of last night’s games, the Jazz rank seventh in the league with 102.5 points scored per 100 possessions. Snyder’s emphasis on playing with pace, playing with purpose and playing with the pass has been evident from the team’s first game. More impressive is the squad’s defensive rating in the preseason; Utah is allowing only 91.5 points per 100 possessions, which is good enough to lead the league. Much of this is due to the team’s transition defense, which appears greatly improved from last season.

It’s not all good news, however. Despite solid preseason performances from Trey Burke, Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors, the remainder of the team’s starting five has struggled at times. Even more inconsistent has been the team’s bench, which will probably be an issue all season as rookies Exum and Rodney Hood adapt to the NBA game. There will be nights when everything is clicking and the Jazz can beat any team in the league. But, inevitably, the youth will show and there will be a lot of ugly nights when that happens.

Bovada has set the line on Jazz victories for the 2014-15 season at 24, one fewer than last year. The LVH SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas Resort was kinder, going with 25 and a half. It’s easy to see why they put the totals where they did given the team’s performance last season, lack of star power and rookie coach. That said, I’m taking the over all day long.

Not all of the Jazz’ recent success will translate to regular season wins, but some of it will. Schematically speaking, the team has a clear philosophy on each side of the floor and is buying in to executing things to those ends. Utah may lack a legit go-to guy or an All-Star, but what they do have is a stable of young, multi-talented, athletic players that have improved every year.

The 2014-15 season will be no different as the team will win at least 30 games and, if everything falls into place, has a chance to be this year’s Phoenix Suns and be the surprise team of the season. My early prediction—the Jazz finish 34-48 and put themselves in position to start making major noise in 2015-16.

Ryan Aston covers the Utah Jazz for RantSports. Follow him on Twitter @MrMaryKateOlsen or add him to your network on Google.