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Ahh, the Big-12 — a magical land where the top three teams’ playoff and bowl scenarios hang in the balance of two matchups. TCU has their hands full against Texas on Thanksgiving, and a win by the Longhorns would throw the Dec. 6 game between Baylor and Kansas State into the national spotlight.
Baylor is looking at a possible playoff berth, and a win against Kansas State would make a convincing argument that Art Briles’ squad is a better candidate than Ohio State, whose loss to Virginia Tech is a perpetual black eye. However, if Kansas State beats Baylor after taking care of business against Kansas to close out the year and TCU loses this week to Texas, the Wildcats win the conference outright and no team makes the playoff.
For Wildcats fans, this scenario ends with Kansas State in Dallas in the Cotton Bowl with the conference championship under their belt. However, it is still quite possible that the Wildcats make it to “Jerry World” without winning the Big-12. A win over Baylor knocks the Bears out of the conference title and playoff hunt and virtually assures Kansas State a trip to Dallas as long as TCU beats Texas, handles Iowa State and makes the playoff. There is still the inconvenient fact that TCU could win out and still be on the outside looking in at the playoff. But with Ohio State still needing to navigate the Big 10 Championship game against either Wisconsin or Minnesota, a loss by the Buckeyes is conceivable.
On the other hand, there is the possibility that everything goes exactly as the chalk says it will. In this case, Kansas State falls to Baylor. TCU beats Texas, but falls short of the conference title and playoff due to the tiebreaker with Baylor, and the Bears make it to New Orleans. This would leave TCU as the No. 2 Big-12 team and a virtual shoo-in for the Cotton Bowl, leaving K-State as the third wheel.
The Alamo Bowl gets the third pick of Big-12 teams and would likely bring the Wildcats to San Antonio to face a top-tier Pac-12 opponent. The last, and only, time Kansas State played in the Alamo Bowl was in 1998 when the heavily favored Wildcats fell to Drew Brees and Purdue, 37-34. Although there isn’t a long history between the school and the bowl committee, expect Kansas State to be a very desirable team for San Antonio. The smart money is on this scenario, but as has been evidenced by this year’s insanity, anything is possible.
Projection: Alamo Bowl
Optimistic: Cotton Bowl
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