Kansas State Football Bowl Scenarios

Entering the college football season’s final week, Kansas State is seen by most to be a lurking spoiler for the hopes of conference rival Baylor to reach the College Football Playoff. Forgotten in that logic is that the Wildcats still have a championship to play for. With just one conference loss, Kansas State will play for a share of the Big 12 Championship in Waco and will be a lock for a “New Year’s Six” bowl game if they finish 10-2. Bill Snyder will have the Wildcats fired up to ruin the Bears’ season and punch their ticket to a major bowl game.

If Snyder’s Kansas State upends Baylor, the Wildcats will be one of the top non-playoff teams in the nation. A spot in the Cotton Bowl or Fiesta Bowl would be the probable landing spot for a top 10 ranked Kansas State team. Those two bowls have commonly featured Big 12 teams and would pit the co-conference champion Wildcats with a top 10 caliber foe.

Baylor has been a different team at home, however, and it will be a tall order for Kansas State to upset the Bears on the road despite their considerable motivation. The availability of QB Bryce Petty may present Kansas State an opportunity for the upset, but the Wildcats may still have trouble stopping the Bears’ offense. A loss would drop Kansas State to 9-3 and out of the “New Year’s Six” bowl slate. Snyder’s team figures to slot into one of the top two Big 12 tie-ins regardless. An invite to the Alamo Bowl or Russell Athletic Bowl would be the landing spot for the Wildcats with a third loss. Because of a superior conference record and head-to-head win, the Big 12 may slot Kansas State ahead of fellow Big 12 also-ran Oklahoma into the Big 12’s top non-major bowl, the Alamo Bowl.

In San Antonio, the Wildcats would face off with a Pac-12 team with Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA the most likely opponents. The Sun Devils and Bruins both sit at 9-3 with no games left and no chance at a “New Year’s Six” bowl, while Arizona can play in with a win over Oregon and may still make a major bowl with a close loss. After getting embarrassed at home by Stanford, UCLA was probably knocked behind Arizona State in the bowl pecking order out west, making the Sun Devils Kansas State’s likely opponent in a potential Alamo Bowl matchup.

Lose to Baylor: Alamo Bowl, Russell Athletic Bowl
Beat Baylor: Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl
Projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Arizona State