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After 20 years of coaching the Hawkeyes, Iowa’s legendary coach Hayden Fry retired in 1998, opening the door for successor Kirk Ferentz.
After two dismal seasons, Ferentz led Iowa to a 7-5 record in 2001, which ended with a win over Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl. The 2002 season had Hawkeye fans excited as Iowa finished with an 11-1 regular season record and earned a share of the Big Ten championship, their first since 1990. The season finished in disappointing fashion as the Hawkeyes lost to USC in the Orange Bowl. However, the next two seasons saw Iowa go 20-5, which included a 2-0 bowl record. Ferentz had proved himself a worthy successor of Fry.
But if current trends continue, Athletic Director Gary Barta should start thinking about Ferentz’s successor.
Since the end of the 2004 season, Iowa has had only one 10-win season (2009) and that did not include a Big Ten championship. During that span, the Hawkeyes have gone 3-6 in bowl games. Even worse, they haven’t exactly been lighting it up against in-state rival Iowa State.
Since 2005, Iowa has managed a mediocre 5-5 record against an Iowa State program that has gone 45-78 over that time span. That is a problem.
I understand that Iowa isn’t what you would call a perennial Big Ten powerhouse, but I would certainly think Hawkeye fans expect better than 8-5 and 7-6 records year in and year out. Ferentz led his teams to 10-win seasons early on at Iowa, and it is imperative he does that this season. He may have lost Jake Rudock at quarterback, but Ferentz has shown he can work with a backup quarterback (remember James Vandenberg in 2009? The kid almost single-handedly beat Ohio State in Columbus).
Iowa’s non-conference schedule consists of Illinois State, Iowa State, Pittsburgh and North Texas. That is an easy schedule. Iowa State is a road game, but there is no reason for Iowa to lose that game, barring injury. After that, it opens conference play on the road against Wisconsin. It may be a tough environment, but Wisconsin will still be searching for an offensive identity.
Following that, Iowa faces Illinois, Northwestern, Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota and Purdue. It doesn’t have to face Ohio State or Michigan State. The one tough road game during that stretch may be Northwestern. The other road game is Indiana. The rest are home games. There is no reason why the Hawkeyes shouldn’t go at least 5-1 in that stretch of games. I’ll give them a pass on the road against Nebraska. That is a tough venue.
The good news for Ferentz is that his contract isn’t up until 2020. But if he can’t lead Iowa to at least 10 wins this season, that safety net may become as weak as Iowa’s 2015 schedule.
Brooks Hooley is a Junior Big Ten Football Writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow Brooks on Twitter @brookshooley.
