The big story here is obviously how Lewis handles being given the starting job. He did a decent job in his only other start, but that will likely not mean much here. The Bengals love to bring pressure up the middle, so they might want to move Lewis around in the pocket. The Bengals have exceptional play in the defensive backfield but S Taylor Mays could be beat, so look for the Bills to try and get Scott Chandler involved early.
Dalton and company have struggled of late. The Bills will try to get pressure in Dalton's face and see if they can induce some mistakes. Tyler Eifert has been a beast in the passing game for the Bengals, but the Bills successfully shut down Jordan Cameron, the big target at tight end for the Browns, last week. Gilmore will be in his first game of the season, but his injury was to his hand so once he shakes off the rust, he shouldn't be slowed down. Still, A.J. Green will be a tough task for him after a six-week layoff.
With Manuel out and Lewis in, I'd expect to see more of the same from the Bills on offense -- a lot of Fred Jackson and a lot of C.J. Spiller. Spiller was used sporadically last week, only getting eight carries, but he's had 10 days to rest up and has been a full go at practice this week. The Bengals are good against the run, but that won't stop the Bills from pounding the rock at them. The only question is how many second- and third-and-shorts can they produce and keep from putting the game on Lewis' shoulders?
The Bills are familiar with BenJarvus Green-Ellis from his time with the Patriots. He is a tough runner who is hard to bring down. Expect the Bills to key on the run early in the hopes that they can make Dalton beat them. They did the same thing with Joe Flacco to great success two weeks ago and will be looking for a repeat performance this Sunday. It all starts with stopping the run.
I see another defensive battle here with the Bengals doing just enough to beat the Bills. I have a hard time seeing Lewis getting into the end zone. He'll fare a bit better than Jeff Tuel did, but not by much. The Bills will have to make plays on defense to win this game. The Bengals made two crucial mistakes last week and still won the game against a superior team to the Bills. Buffalo will likely need to induce four or five big mistakes on defense, and it sounds like a task too tall. The Bengals will come away with another win in a defensive battle against an AFC East opponent.
