Whether you follow the Baltimore Orioles closely or not, there is a good chance that you have come across the trade rumors involving the center fielder. Off the top of my head, I can remember that the Atlanta Braves were linked to Adam Jones, but I’d imagine that there were at least a few other teams interested as well. With Adam Jones still in their equation, should the Baltimore Orioles start considering a long-term extension?
Offensively, Jones has the speed and power to make an impact on a nightly basis. He just needs to continue to harness and develop his skills. He’s missed some time throughout his young career, but for the sake of our discussion we’ll just say that he’s played four full(ish) seasons. Even though the offensive development has been fairly modest and incremental, it was still encouraging to see him post some of his best numbers in 2011. This past season, Jones achieved career highs in HR (25), RBI (83), SB (12), ISO (.185), SLG (.466) and WAR (2.9 according to Fangraphs). For those of you scoffing at the inclusion of RBI, just remember that not everyone has hopped on the sabermetric bandwagon just yet. One other telling sign that deserves mention is the power spike Jones experienced in the second half of 2011. After slugging .457 and homering in 3.86% of his at-bats in the first half, Jones improved those figures to .478 and 5.22%, respectively, after the break. That may seem like a modest increases, but go ahead calculate each HR rate over the course of 600 at-bats. It makes a big difference. Does his second half growth combined with his modest year-to-year improvement suggest that he’s destined for stardom in the near future? Maybe not, but I think they are good indications that he’s maturing offensively and ready to take another step or two forward sooner rather than later.
Depending on how you feel about defensive metrics, you may feel that Jones has more to offer with the leather. According to Fangraphs (again), Jones has accumulated -13.9 UZR. I’m not a fan of defensive metrics, but I don’t want to completely disregard the data that is out there. When it comes to defense, I prefer to place more stock in a players raw ability and scouting reports. Back in 2007, Baseball America had this to say regarding Jones’ defensive ability:
He has the tools to emulate Mike Cameron and become a Gold Glove outfielder. Jones tracks balls very well, covers plenty of ground has one of the strongest center field arms in the game.
To be fair, they mentioned that he needed to improve on his routes – particularly on balls hit over his head. The scouting report is also from 2007 which feels like ages ago. At 26 though, it is unlikely that Jones has lost the physical tools that encouraged scouts to publish such glowing reports. However you prefer to evaluate defense, I don’t think we can argue that Jones has the tools to make a positive impact on the position. Additionally, he was drafted as a shortstop and spent his first few professional seasons there so he is still relatively inexperienced at the position compared to other center fielders around the game.
Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors suggests that an extension for Jones could look something like a four-year $40 million pact. That would buy out his final two years of arbitration and his first two years of free agency. Using that estimation as a baseline, I’d have to think that the Orioles should strongly consider signing Jones to an extension. Unless there is something glaring about his makeup that I don’t know about, I think an average annual salary of $10 million could be a bargain if Jones continues to progress steadily as he has done in the early part of his career. Even if he doesn’t take a huge step forward, Jones is still the type of player that can impact a game with his power and raw athleticism.
Financially, the Baltimore Orioles can afford to wait on Adam Jones before committing to him long-term, but I think they’d be wise to be proactive here because the longer they wait, the higher the risk that Jones leaves via free agency and blossoms in someone else’s uniform.
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