Jameis Winston and The Late Quarterback Decommitment
ESPN’s Recruiting Nation reported (behind a pay wall) that Jameis Winston, 5-star Alabama quarterback and Florida State commit, gained admission to Stanford and the late acceptance letter might give the talented high school star second thoughts toward Tallahassee.
While it’s a nice story to sell subscriptions as Signing Day approaches, Winston didn’t back off his commitment to the Seminoles when nearby Alabama won the national championship.
He’s unlikely to flip for Palo Alto now.
But the thought of a late quarterback switch drives pageviews and it’s hard to fault ESPN for praying that David Shaw suddenly combines the recruiting prowess of Urban Meyer and Nick Saban on the recruiting trail.
That said, quarterback decommitments drive sane men to the edge of deranged and present a fascinating case study.
What happens when the future savior under-center of a program bails?
Andy Staples at Sports Illustrated recently offered statistics on overall decommitments in college football and the numbers don’t surprise.
“Of the 500 players ranked in the Rivals100 for the classes of 2007 through 2011, 73 (14.6 percent) decommited at some point during their recruitment. Of those, 62 (12.4 percent) ultimately signed with a school other than the one to which they originally committed…The decommitment numbers do tell a story, though. Of the players who decommitted, 34.2 percent either failed to qualify, transferred or were dismissed.”
Over one-third of players who don’t stick with their gut instinct, their original college choice, wash out. It speaks to the necessity of taking time on a major life decision and once it’s made, not falling victim to the whimsies of a position coach with a sales pitch.
During the current cycle, recruitniks watched in awe as Indiana prep Gunner Kiel committed to the in-state Hoosiers, left them for Les Miles and LSU only to enroll at Notre Dame.
It’s too early to figure where Kiel’s journey leaves his three choices on the gridiron but not the diehards on the respective campuses.
Indiana — a bottom-feeder in the Big Ten — thought it nabbed a 5-star quarterback, the equivalent of winning Powerball and snagging a date with Kate Upton.
LSU finally found a superstar signal-caller, one that could carry the offense to a title rather than relying on Honey Badgers and freakish defensive linemen.
Notre Dame has their 2012 version of Ron Powlus. He might not win the Heisman twice nor garner that type of praise from Beano Cook but there’s hope. And at a program that saw plenty of Brian Kelly Angry Faces aimed at quarterbacks, that’s enough for now.
Past instances offer success at the beneficiary campus as well as the school losing a prospect.
Chris Simms flipped from Tennessee to Texas in 1999 and while he came up short against Oklahoma and in the 2001 Big 12 Championship, he still won 26 games. He was effective in Austin, not on par with Colt McCoy or Vince Young but certainly in the upper-echelon of Longhorn quarterbacks.
Tee Martin led the Volunteers in 1999 before the Casey Clausen era began in Knoxville. Clausen didn’t enter Neyland Stadium with the plaudits of Chris Simms but he exited Tennessee with a 34-10 record and an appearance in the 2001 SEC Championship. Clausen won, kept the Vols competitive and never had to worry about looking over his shoulder at Major Applewhite.
Both Blaine and Tyler Gabbert committed to Nebraska before eventually reneging on their pledges.
Blaine decided to forego Omaha because Bill Callahan was fired and landed in Missouri. As a Tiger, he won 18 games total in 2009 and 2010 and skipped his senior year. Relative to Missouri football history, he was a rousing success. Following Chase Daniel, perhaps the expectations were a bit high.
Younger brother Tyler spurned the Huskers for Missouri, redshirted in Columbia, passed through Louisville and is now slated to take snaps at Central Florida. So far, it’s safe to assume Nebraska hasn’t missed him.
Nebraska used lesser-known Zac Lee to reach the 2009 Big 12 Championship and featured Taylor Martinez’s rushing ability en route to an appearance in the 2010 Big 12 Championship.
The elder Gabbert may or may not have meant the difference in both of those close contests but the ‘Huskers obviously moved on in spite of their high-profile quarterback decommitment.
Though frustrating if it happens to your alma mater, quarterback flips aren’t a death knell for college football programs.
Maybe coaches have to focus more on the incumbent or the scrawny freshman (as Texas did with Colt McCoy when Ryan Perrilloux bolted late for LSU). Perhaps teams find a winner under center like Tennessee did in Clausen despite losing a supposed savior.
Jameis Winston is unlikely to switch from Florida State to Stanford but history tells us that even if he does, the Seminoles won’t suddenly plummet to the basement in the ACC.
Florida State, a recruiting juggernaut as of late, will simply plug in another option and keep an eye out for the next player offering 5 stars worth of salvation.
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