Rant Sports March Madness Bubble Watch: Colorado State

Published: 5th Mar 12 7:25 pm
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Kris Hughes
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Troy Babbitt- US PRESSWIRE

Over the course of the next six days, Rant Sports will feature seven teams which sit atop the March Madness bubble.

Some of these teams control their own destiny, and with strong finishes can make their way into the 2012 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, while others will need intervention from other teams similarly situated.

Tonight’s focus is the Colorado State Rams.

At 19-10 overall and 8-6 in Mountain West conference play, the Rams have a strong enough Strength of Schedule that a 2012 tournament appearance looks likely without a late-season collapse.

Let’s take a look at the Rams’ resume:

Good Wins / Bad Losses

Three wins over ranked opponents in a little more than a month highlight the positive side of the Rams’ schedule in 2011-2012: a 77-60 thrashing of then ranked No. 12 San Diego State on January 28th, an eight point, 71-63 win at home over the New Mexico Lobos on February 21st, and most recently an impressive 66-59 win at home over the No. 17 ranked UNLV Rebels. Off-setting these wins are bad losses to the University of Northern Iowa and Wyoming and a surprising one-point loss to sub-.500 Boise State.

Remaining Schedule / Opportunities

Colorado State next faces 17-13 TCU this Thursday in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Championship Tournament in Las Vegas. A win there as well as a second-round win over likely opponent, conference leader San Diego State will be enough in and of themselves to get the Rams a ticket punched to March Madness.

If, for some reason, Colorado State loses to TCU they must depend on a strength of schedule and RPI that were both well-conceived and planned by the Rams’ coaching staff and athletic administration. The Rams currently have the 24th best RPI in the country and are ranked at 58th in Strength of Schedule. These two factors should be Colorado State’s saving grace even with an early conference tournament loss.

Brand Name

In this case, brand name won’t play a factor. Colorado State’s signature wins are strong enough that they speak for themselves regardless of the cache or lack thereof for the Rams’ program.

Destiny Control?

Colorado State definitely controls its own destiny. A win against TCU in the first-round of the tourney and a competitive evening against San Diego State– even with a loss– should still be enough to at a minimum earn the Rams an appearance in the NCAA play-in game.

Our Bet

We’ll go on and bet on Colorado State punching a ticket to March Madness. Seems hard to see how they could miss out.

Coming tomorrow: Tennessee.

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