Tim Duncan Deserves All Star Nod
Ya, you read that right. Tim Duncan deserves to be playing at the All Star Game in Orlando this year. Though his numbers are down from where they usually are, a second look is needed. Timmy has been playing less than 28 minutes per game, well below the 34 or so he averaged during his prime.
You ask, at 13.9 ppg, how does that even constitue an All Star selection? Going back to those 28 minutes, John Hollinger from ESPN uses statistics and good ol’ math to adjust numbers for every single player. The standard is 40 minutes per game. After adjusting Tim’s minutes and points, he is actually averaging 20.2 ppg, which is better than All Star reserve Marc Gasol, and just a basket less than Dirk Nowitzki. The 20.2 is also higher than Western Starter Andrew Bynum.
‘Ok, so he’s only got two beat there. Still, I don’t think he deserves it,’ you reply.
Now to the adjusted rebounds. In his 28 minutes, Tim is averaging more rebounds per game than Dirk Nowitzki and 0.2 per game less than LaMarcus Aldridge. After adjusting for 40 minutes, Tim’s number increases to 12.1 rebounds per game, which is more than Nowitzki, Aldridge, Gasol, and just one shy of Kevin Love. He also beats starters Blake Griffin (by just 0.1 per game, fine) and Kevin Durant.
Looking at the rebound rate from Hollinger, he calculates the percentage of missed shots that a player rebounds. Effectively, it attempts to quantify how good a player is at crashing the boards. At 17.5, Duncan is only less than Kevin Love (19.1), Blake Griffin (17.8), and Andrew Bynum (20.2).
‘So your starting to make your point, but I’m still not convinced.’
Assists for big men may not seem like an important statistic and can rely on the shooters on your team, but they must know how and when to pass the ball, and do what is better for the team than for his own individual statistics. After adjusting Duncan’s numbers, his 3.8 apg are higher than any of the reserve or starter selections. He has the highest rate per 40 minutes of any western all star selection.
Another statistical category that should be looked at for big men is blocks. Duncan is currently averaging 1.3 bpg in those 28 minutes, which, with less minutes, is higher than Nowitzki, Aldridge, Love, Griffin, and Durant. Duncan’s would certainly be close to that of Bynum (2.0) and Gasol (2.2) when all three players’ numbers are adjusted.
Now, looking at the Player Efficiency Rating by Hollinger, Duncan beats out Dirk Nowitzki and Marc Gasol easily. Duncan also has three straight double doubles, and and was three-fourths of the way home to a triple double against Memphis, recording five blocks. He has graciously taken a smaller role in the offense, but that doesn’t mean his number are down as far as everyone thinks. It just means that review of his statistics, and after adjust accordingly, say only one thing…
Tim Duncan deserves to go to his fourteenth consecutive All Star Game.
Follow Paul Troupe on Twitter @gamin4HIM
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