The Detroit Tigers won the American League Central last year with relative ease. The Indians and White Sox attempted to keep jabbing at Detroit, while the Tigers laid the knock out punch in mid-September. Tigers were undoubtedly the best team last year in the Central. I am not trying to debate the results. 2011 is over though and it’s time to look at 2012. I’m wondering if the Tigers will be able to put up similar result.
If you are a traditional or a Tiger fan; emotions might boil. Most traditional fans refuse to acknowledge luck exists in baseball. Hits are hits and outs are outs. I am not one of those fans. As I alluded in my article about Verlander winning the Cy Young, there is the “BABIP Monster” lurking for the 2012 Tigers.
The BABIP monster was very kind to the Tigers in 2011. If you are wondering why I look at BABIP so much, it’s because I think it’s the best stat to look at in order to judge the future. You can look at slash lines, WAR, OBP, which is all fine and good. However, none of those numbers can look into a magic 8-ball like BABIP can. It isn’t always accurate. No stat ever is fully accurate, but if you want to know why a player/team did as well as they did, BABIP can paint the picture.
Here is a list of Tiger hitters who outperformed their career BABIP. A .300 BABIP is generally the norm, but some players are line drive hitters which affects BABIP positively. 2011 BABIP on the left and career BABIP on the right.
Miguel Cabrera: .365/.347
Alex Avila: .366/.329
Jhonny Peralta: .325/.314
Victor Martinez: .343/.316
Wilson Betemit: .391/.341
Those are the top five that I noticed. There are a few others who are over a tad that isn’t worth noting. They did have a couple hitters who didn’t perform how they should have, but nothing extravagant. Avila, Martinez, and Betemit have little to no chance to hit as well as they did last season. Considering how well Martinez and Avila did for Detroit, them coming back down to earth could be the difference in a few wins. Cabrera is Cabrera. He will hit regardless. Peralta isn’t a main issue for BABIP, but is a main issue for UZR. Peralta had a +9.9 UZR when he was a over a -30 fielder prior to 2011. I’m not ready to call Peralta a plus shortstop yet. If he puts up a plus number in 2012 I will concede.
Now let’s look at pitchers. Similar to hitters’ BABIP, it doesn’t tell the whole story. A groundball pitcher will always have a low BABIP because more balls are put into play. 2011 BABIP left and career right. Pitching is opposite. Lower indicates luck.
Justin Verlander: .236/.285
Doug Fister: .245 (w/DET)/.284
Jose Valverde: .247/.263
Those are the only three red flags to me. Even a couple of pitchers like Scherzer and Porcello has higher BABIP’s in 2011 than their career. Pitching doesn’t have as much red flags as do their hitting.
Another “luck” stat to look at is Pythagoras W-L record. It’s based on runs scored and runs allowed to see how many wins a team should have based on that differential. The Tigers had a +7 Pythag. It was aided by a 29-17 record in 1-run games and Jose Valverde’s perfect season.
When you are lucky and good great results can happen. Tigers will still be the favorite in 2012 as they should be. This is just something to keep an eye on, not only Detroit, but for other teams. It also helps immensely for Fantasy Baseball!
As Toby Harrah once said. “Stats are like a girl in a bikini, they’re great to look at, but don’t tell the whole story.”
Well said, Toby. Well said.
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I’ve followed baseball and the Tigers for too many years, remembering the 1950 boys of summer and their predicted collapse after their close finish to the Yankees. They all (Wertz, Groth, Kell, Lipon, Priddy and more) had career years.
But help me out with the initials or modern baseball science (BABIP??). It would help an old fella like me.
BABIP stands for Batting Average for balls in play. Which means, batting average with every ball put in play minus strikeouts.
Line Drive percentage helps decide if one’s BABIP is flukey or not. If a person is hitting line drives, it’s obviously harder to defend, thus they would get more hits. But, if one has a horrible line drive percentage, their BABIP will be low because they are popping the ball up, or flying out.
To explain that, you can look at Vernon Wells on the Angels who had a LD% of like 12 and his BABIP was in the low .210s.
You can find these stats on Fangraphs.com for ANY player. Even your age old Tigers. Heck, it would be interesting for you to look at Norm Cash in 1961. Considering Cash never came close to hitting .360 again, I bet his BABIP was through the roof that year.
Like I said, BABIP isn’t the whole story, it’s just something that you can quickly glance at to determine if something was a little lucky.
I’ve followed baseball and the Tigers for too many years, remembering the 1950 boys of summer and their predicted collapse after their close finish to the Yankees. They all (Wertz, Groth, Kell, Lipon, Priddy and more) had career years.
But help me out with the initials or modern baseball science (BABIP??). It would help an old fella like me.
Hey Fred, no problem.
BABIP stands for Batting Average for balls in play. Which means, batting average with every ball put in play minus strikeouts.
Line Drive percentage helps decide if one’s BABIP is flukey or not. If a person is hitting line drives, it’s obviously harder to defend, thus they would get more hits. But, if one has a horrible line drive percentage, their BABIP will be low because they are popping the ball up, or flying out.
To explain that, you can look at Vernon Wells on the Angels who had a LD% of like 12 and his BABIP was in the low .210s.
You can find these stats on Fangraphs.com for ANY player. Even your age old Tigers. Heck, it would be interesting for you to look at Norm Cash in 1961. Considering Cash never came close to hitting .360 again, I bet his BABIP was through the roof that year.
Like I said, BABIP isn’t the whole story, it’s just something that you can quickly glance at to determine if something was a little lucky.
Thanks for commenting. Hope that helped some.