Don’t expect Andrew Luck to have much “luck” in 2012 for the Indianapolis Colts

Published: 7^th Mar 12 12:31 pm

by Mr. Destiny
Mr. Destiny

RANT It!

Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

It’s official, the Andrew Luck era for the Indianapolis Colts has begun. By now, you have all heard the glorious praise and borderline man crush which NFL scouts, execs and analysts all have for the Stanford quarterback. While he seems to be every bit the total package, his transition to professional football will not be overnight. He will be replacing one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history and the pressure will be on him to perform. Jim Irsay has placed all of his eggs in one Luck(y) basket and Colts fans will have high expectations given how much they have been spoiled by the Manning era.

This is where Irsay and the Colts nation need to take a step back to seriously look at reality. Though fans suffered through a miserable 2011 with Curtis Painter at the helm, Peyton will be on their mind and it will be as if last year never happened. Andrew Luck will be compared and evaluated against everything Peyton Manning. If Manning outperforms Luck (and he will) rumblings questioning Jim Irsay’s youth movement will be prevalent. Nobody has even examined possibility Luck will struggle in year one. Everyone just assumes he won’t because of the pedestal he’s been put on. The point here is that Colts fans should expect Andrew Luck to struggle in his first season and forget about even mentioning his name in the same sentence as Peyton Manning.

Even before he is drafted, Luck will be playing against a stacked deck. Reggie Wayne is very likely to follow Peyton Manning to whatever team he winds up with. Pierre Garcon will be looking for the highest bidder after four seasons of solid play which proved he has the talent to be a #1 wide receiving threat. Anthony Gonzalez is another unrestricted free agent who could test the waters, as is Jacob Tamme, who’s going to want a starting job instead of waiting behind Dallas Clark. The Colts will have their hands full trying to retain them given they are estimated to take a $10.4 million dollar cap hit by cutting Manning and will have at least $4 million added to that total with Andrew Luck’s contract. We won’t have a real cap room estimate until the particulars of the Mathis deal are done and it can be determined if the franchise tag is placed on trying to retain Garcon.

There will be the speed of the NFL game to adjust to, more complex schemes and timing with his offense. To expect a rookie quarterback to come in and have immediate success is asking a bit much. Peyton Manning’s worst season was his rookie season. He had two more picks than scores, a rating of 71, completion percentage 0f 56.7 and threw for 3,739 yards-all career lows. This is not skepticism on Luck’s talents, there is little doubt he has the tools to be the long term solution in replacing Peyton Manning. Just don’t expect him to set Lucas Oil Stadium on fire this year.

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