The Jaguars got their 2011 season started on the right foot with an important division victory over a Titans team that many expect to struggle this season, now they get a chance to go on the road and test their new look defense against a team many believe will reach the playoffs for the third straight year in the Jets. A win against a quality opponent on Sunday would go a long way in helping the Jaguars establish themselves as a legitimate contender in the AFC South.
Here is a breakdown of how the teams match up.
Jaguars Offense vs. Jets Defense
The Jaguars offense controlled the game last week with a steady diet of Maurice Jones-Drew and Deji Karim running the ball. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, the Jets defense is very stout against the run and the Jaguars will likely have to open up the playbook this week to find ways to move the football. Needless to say, pounding the ball into the heart of the Jets defense will likely not produce a great offensive result for the Jaguars.
The Jets also possess one of the best secondaries in the NFL, but in Week 1 the Cowboys were able to move the ball effectively through the air with Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. Luckily for the Jets, the Jaguars don’t have any wide receivers close to that skill level and I anticipate Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie being able to make life difficult for Luke McCown on the outside.
The one weak spot in the Jets defense that the Jaguars are well equipped to exploit is the coverage skills of their linebackers. If they are healthy and able to play on Sunday, tight ends Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller would create big matchup nightmares for the Jets over the middle of the field. Cowboys tight end Jason Witten had six catches for 110 yards in Week 1 against the Jets, so I expect the tight ends to have a major role in the Jaguars offensive game plan on Sunday.
The Jaguars offensive staff kept the training wheels on McCown last week in his first start since 2007, but if they want to win on Sunday he will have to do more than just manage the game. If McCown can limit his mistakes and hit on some big plays then the Jaguars will have a chance to pull off the upset on Sunday.
Jaguars Defense vs. Jets Offense
The Jaguars new look defense was exceptional in their first game together. Outsides of one fluky 80-yard touchdown pass, the Jaguars held the Titans offense to 212 total yards and never let All-Pro running back Chris Johnson get on track.
For a team as physical as the Jets are, they are surprisingly poor at running the football. Last week the Jets managed only 45 rushing yards and only averaged 2.8 yards per carry. I would expect the Jaguars defense to have another solid week when it comes to stopping the run.
The Jets offensive identity is heavily tied to their passing attack which rolled up 315 yards against a banged up Cowboys secondary last week. The Jaguars will be without starting cornerback Derek Cox on Sunday which will be a massive blow for their pass defense as he effectively shut down Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt before getting injured. The Jaguars pass defense appears to be improved this season, but the Jets will provide a stiffer challenge for the secondary than the Titans did in week 1.
Prediction
The Jets showed in week 1 that they are vulnerable and I do not think it would be a major upset if the Jaguars win on Sunday. However, I did not see anything in the Titans game that leads me to believe that the Jaguars will be able to consistently move the football against the Jets defense. The Jaguars defense is going to keep the game close, but in the end I give the nod to the home team.
Jets 24 Jaguars 16
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