Jaguars Offense vs. Bengals Defense
There has been a lot of talk this week about how the Bengals are the top ranked defense in the NFL, but I am not buying it. Statistically they are allowing the least yards per game, but they are giving up 18.5 points a game. However, the Bengals have played three of their first four games against teams ranked in the bottom ten in offense. So while the Bengals certainly have a good defense, I do not necessarily believe they are impossible to score on.
I think the three key stats on Sunday are going to be rushing yards, time of possession and turnovers. With that being said I think the Jaguars offensive gameplan on Sunday will be very Maurice Jones-Drew heavy. The Jaguars cannot be successful this season if they are letting Blaine Gabbert drop back to pass over 40 times like he did last week against the Saints. He is too young and inexperienced to carry an offense on his back like that.
Like every other defense the Jaguars have faced so far this season, I expect the Bengals to commit eight guys to stopping the run. This should leave some man coverage opportunities for the Jaguars receivers. Having any amount of success throwing the ball will go a long way in helping Jones-Drew and Deji Karim find room to run.
Jaguars Defense vs. Bengals Offense
Like the Jaguars, the Bengals are starting a rookie quarterback this season. Andy Dalton has had a moderate amount of success so far this year, largely due to his ability to throw the ball to wide receiver A.J. Green. However, the biggest concern for the Jaguars defense should be tight end Jermaine Gresham. Last week the Jaguars defense got torched by Saints tight end Jimmy Graham and unfortunately for them Gresham possesses the same freakish athletic ability that gave the Jaguars linebackers problems last week. I expect the Bengals to look for Gresham early and often and it will be up to the Jaguars defense to stop him.
Despite the fact that the Jaguars surrendered 177 rushing yards last week to the Saints, I am not worried about the Jaguars run defense. The Jaguars were forced to play with a lot of defensive backs on the field last week with the Saints spread offense making them vulnerable to giving up rushing yards. The Bengals are not a high flying offense which should allow the Jaguars to play with their base personnel for most of the game making them better equipped to stop the run.
In order for the Jaguars to win this game, they will need to create a couple of turnovers on defense. The Jaguars have been in position for several interceptions this season, but have let some of those balls hit the ground. Dalton has thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns so far this season, so when the opportunity presents itself the Jaguars defense needs to take advantage of his mistake.
Prediction
These two teams are mirror images of each other. Both are starting rookie quarterbacks and trying to win football games on the strength of their defense. I expect this to be a physical, low scoring slugfest. The team that can find success running the football and control the clock will have the best chance to win this game. I give a slight nod to the home team.
Jaguars 16 Bengals 13
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I don’t think these two teams are quite the mirror images of each other. I think the Bengals have a pass game to complement their run game. I think Jacksonville will not be able to stop this offense, because it will be a very balanced attack. On the other hand, Jacksonville is awful throwing the ball. Jacksonville has such a weak passing attack, that even when they are running the ball effectively, they cannot pass with much success. I mean they have 550 yards passing this year. No matter how well their defense is doing, I can’t see this offense putting more than 16 points a game at the rate their playing. I have to politely disagree here and go with the Bengals offense being too much for Jacksonville: 23-13 Bengals.
I don’t think either team has the offensive firepower to pull away in this game. The Bengals definitely have the better weapons in the passing attack, but I definitely think that the Jaguars have the better rushing attack. The game is going to come down to which rookie quarterback makes the least mistakes.