Another week, and really a very similar story for the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have lost two close, competitive games to open the season, and both times their inability to throw the ball themselves or stop the pass was a big contributor to the result. This week, Minnesota faces yet another offense aerial fiesta in the Detroit Lions, who are currently 6th in the NFL in total passing, averaging 313 yards per game. While that will be a factor in this game, it won’t be the entire story.
We have situational match-ups for this game analyzed below, including our take on who has the edge in every situation:
When Detroit Passes:
It was mentioned above, but I’ll say it again: you have the NFL’s 6th rated passing offense going against the 23rd ranked pass defense, and even if CB Antoine Winfield can contain WR Calvin Johnson (and there’s no guarantee that he can), WR Nate Burleson is emerging as a dangerous 2nd option in Detroit. If Stafford and company decide that the proper adjustment to the return of DT Kevin Williams is to go to the air more, he may throw for 400 yards without much trouble at all.
Edge: Detroit
When Detroit Runs:
IF Detroit runs the ball much, this match-up might actually be a positive for Minnesota. The front seven has been solid if not spectacular through 2 games, and Williams’ aforementioned return makes them even stronger against the ground game. RB Jahvid Best has certainly been a serviceable back in the first two weeks, but whether it’s the Vikings containing him, or the Vikings failing to contain the pass, I don’t think that the Lions running game will be a huge factor this week.
Edge: Minnesota
When Minnesota Passes:
QB Donovan McNabb had a decent outing against Tampa Bay, completing 60% of his passes and throwing for 228 yards. You can live with those numbers most of the time, but it’s also safe to say that McNabb will not be the reason that you win a lot of games this year. Another way of saying that is that this team isn’t built to come from behind, so staying out of an early hole will be huge. If the Vikings can do that, McNabb should be able to manage this game OK, hopefully target WRs Percy Harvin & Bernard Berrian (& Michael Jenkins, for that matter) for another 11-15 catches, and use the passing game to his advantage.
Edge: Push
When Minnesota Runs:
Detroit is giving up 103.5 yards on the ground, yet they held LeGarrette Blount to 15 yards in Week 1, and barely had to face Jamaal Charles in Week 2. I don’t think that this Detroit run defense is as good as advertised just yet, and I definitely see them getting a healthy dose of Adrian Peterson this week. This is also the week, I believe, to start getting RB Toby Gerhart 6 to 8 touches per game, and make it a habit from here on out. He’s been electric with the ball in his hands for the few times its happened in 2011.
Edge: Minnesota
Special Teams:
Both placekickers are still perfect on the year (Hanson actually hit a 51 yd. FG), and both punters are averaging very healthy yardage. Since WR Percy Harvin offers more electricity in the return game than Stefan Logan does for Detroit, we’ll give the slightest of nods to Minnesota.
Edge: Minnesota
Coaching/Intangibles:
I still think that the challenge for Jim Schwartz is to cultivate an environment where winning becomes the standard expectation, not the giddy by-product of bright-eyed kids playing up to other people’s high expectations. Detroit is a good team, and they have to handle themselves as professionals. They won’t always blow out bad teams, they won’t always skate to effortless wins on the road. Until Detroit hits and perseveres through some adversity, it is tough to say just how resilient they really are. For Minnesota, Leslie Frazier has to find a way to not make this the same story for 3 straight weeks. If the Vikings get a lead, something has to change in the second half to retain that lead. Both of these coaches have an interesting task ahead of them this week, and both are trying to set the tone for the rest of the season in Week 3.
Edge: Push
Outlook:
Unless Minnesota surprises us all in the passing games, this one comes down to the inability of the Minnesota secondary to slow Stafford down. If both Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson come up with TD receptions, it could be a long afternoon in the Dome.
Final Score: Detroit 35, Minnesota 17
Stay tuned throughout the Week for comprehensive coverage of this Week 3 matchup between the Lions and the Vikings!
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