Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
After an offseason filled with exciting moves, the Toronto Blue Jays opened Spring Training to a bit of a blow, losing Michael Saunders to a knee injury after he stepped on a sprinkler while shagging fly balls. Saunders, who was acquired from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for J.A. Happ this winter, was expected to replace Melky Cabrera in left field.
Although it was originally reported that Saunders might miss approximately the entire first half, the Blue Jays have since announced that he may only be out for 5-6 weeks. Still, Toronto decided to add a little bit of depth earlier this week, signing Cuban slugger Dayan Viciedo to a minor league contract.
Viciedo was designated for assignment and subsequently released by the Chicago White Sox earlier this winter. Considering some of the other moves that the South Siders made this offseason, it was hardly a surprise that Viciedo ultimately became the odd man out.
Over the course of his career, Viciedo has put up a 254/.298/.424 triple-slash with a .315 wOBA and a 95 wRC+ in five seasons in Chicago. While those numbers are far from eye-popping, his greatest asset is his power, and he does have a .170 lifetime ISO to go along with 66 home runs over 1,675 career at-bats. Despite the fact that he has never posted an fWAR higher than 0.4, he can still be a relatively useful player, albeit a rather one-dimensional one.
Viciedo, who will be turning only 26 years old this month, may actually be a perfect fit in Toronto. Obviously, U.S. Cellular Field was hardly a bad place to hit home runs, but it is worth noting that Rogers Centre can be quite friendly to a right-handed hitter with power.
As seen in the following chart, the 21 home runs that Viciedo hit last season would have translated just fine to his new home ballpark. Of course, he still has to make the team first, but one could see him finding a certain amount of success while playing north of the border.
Chart Courtesy of ESPN’s Home Run Tracker
It should also be noted that Viciedo’s power will come with more than a few whiffs. As the next chart shows, he can be expected to strike out at a slightly above-average clip on an annual basis.
Chart Courtesy of Fangraphs
Viciedo’s 5.3 percent career walk rate is on the low side as well, which helps to explain his less-than-stellar OBP and wOBA. Since the beginning of the 2012 season, Viciedo’s 39.4 O-swing percentage ranks 13th among all qualified players in MLB, further illustrating his lack of patience at the plate.
When it comes to defense, Viciedo has played mostly outfield, but he does have experience playing first and third base, making him a viable option at all four corner spots. Although one might think that his ability to play multiple positions could increase his value, the problem is that he does not play any of them particularly well, with the possible exception of first base.
As a matter of fact, he has never once posted a positive Def rating.
So, where might he fit in? Well, if Viciedo does in fact crack the Blue Jays’ 25-man roster, it seems more than likely that it would be as a part-timer, which could very well be the role that he is best suited for.
After all, Josh Donaldson is at third, Edwin Encarnacion is likely to be the first baseman on most days and Jose Bautista is in right. Therefore, three of the four positions he can play are already blocked by formidable sluggers. While it is possible that Viciedo could prove himself worthy of filling in for Saunders in left during his absence, one would have to believe that Kevin Pillar will garner fairly strong consideration from manager John Gibbons this spring and perhaps be given the first crack.
The 26-year-old Pillar has only slashed .239/.274/.367 over parts of two seasons with the Blue Jays, but he lit up the minor leagues, posting a .322/.364/.477 triple-slash over four seasons. He also showed impressive base-stealing ability, swiping 51 bags across two levels of Single-A ball back in 2012. He may not carry the same type of power potential that Viciedo does, but the fact that he posted a 0.6 fWAR through only 53 games last season shows that he is likely a more well-rounded player.
The Blue Jays have a couple of non-roster invitees such as Ezequiel Carrera and Chris Dickerson who may be able to fight their way into the mix as well. They also have Andy Dirks, who is reportedly in their minor league camp, where he continues to rehab the back injury that sidelined him for the entire 2014 campaign.
In any case, Saunders could be returning to action by mid-April, so the Blue Jays may only need a stop-gap solution for merely a couple of weeks.
The best place for Viciedo may very well be the DH spot, where his shaky defense becomes a non-factor. Of course, as of right now, the Blue Jays also have Dioner Navarro, who figures to see time there after losing his starting catching job to Russell Martin. There is still a possibility that Navarro could be dealt, but the Blue Jays have yet to find a trade partner for him.
If Navarro sticks around, it seems plausible that he and Viciedo could potentially form a platoon. Navarro, a switch-hitter, has actually been better from the right-side of the plate over the course of his career, slashing .270/.335/.434 with a 107 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, compared to only .250/.305/.354 with a 78 wRC+ as a lefty against right-handed pitching.
The right-handed Viciedo, on the other hand, has been even better than Navarro against lefties. Although the numbers are slightly skewed by a 2012 season when he absolutely crushed southpaws to the tune of a 178 wRC+, Viciedo has a lifetime .291/.331/.507 triple-slash with a 124 wRC+ against LHP over his career. Against right-handed pitching, he is only hitting .240/.286/.393 with a 84 wRC+.
It may not seem like an ideal platoon on the surface, but it should be noted that Navarro has made improvements from the left side over the past three seasons, hitting a much healthier .279/.323/.406. While he has still been better from the right side, hitting .296/.352/.493 over the same stretch, Navarro has been good enough as a lefty to potentially form a solid duo with Viciedo in the DH spot.
If Navarro is traded, it could open up the chance for Viciedo to become the full-time DH, or he and Encarnacion could alternate the first base/DH duties. It was a small sample size, but Viciedo did have a 1.0 UZR/150 at first base with the White Sox last season. Spelling Encarnacion would also serve to keep the slugger fresh late in the season, as he is not a total stranger to health issues.
All things considered, though, Viciedo is still most likely better suited for a part-time role. While it is still very possible that he could become a productive, full-time player, the Blue Jays have other players who could be better weapons against right-handed pitching.
The left-handed Dickerson, for example, has been a decent performer against RHP, hitting .258/.335/.411 with a 101 wRC+ over his career. Although it has been a few years now, Dirks absolutely torched right-handed pitching with the Detroit Tigers back in 2012, hitting .336/.375/.515 with a 140 wRC+.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Toronto also has Justin Smoak and Danny Valencia in camp, who might also be able to challenge for playing time at the first base or DH spot.
The switch-hitting Smoak was once a highly-touted prospect with the Texas Rangers. Although he had a frustrating four-and-half-year run with the Mariners after being acquired as part of the Cliff Lee deal, he is still only 28 years old, and he did hit 20 home runs back in 2013. During that campaign, he did the vast majority of his damage as a left-handed batter, hitting .260/.361/.477 with a 137 wRC+.
Valencia had a very sold 2.2 fWAR campaign for the Minnesota Twins during his rookie year, but he wasn’t able to sustain that level of performance, and he has bounced around quite a bit in the four seasons since. Still, he has hit lefties to the tune of a .327/.368/.502 triple-slash with a 138 wRC+ over his career, so he may be an even better option against southpaws than Viciedo.
To put it simply, Viciedo will be joining Smoak and Valencia as another lightning-in-a-bottle candidate trying to prove his worth, and the Blue Jays are going to have plenty of choices to make before setting their roster for Opening Day. Players such as Chris Colabello and Daric Barton could create even more competition.
If Viciedo can find a way to stick out, it will likely be due to his raw power potential.
Considering the fact that Viciedo is still very young, it is hard to estimate exactly where his ceiling may sit, even though he certainly does appear to have 30-homer potential. Going forward, he definitely has a strong enough bat to be an above-replacement level player, but he needs to work on improving his walk rate in order to become more of a complete hitter.
As of right now, unless he makes a change to his approach, it seems that the best case scenario for Viciedo would be to rediscover his 2012 form, when he slashed .255/.300/.444 with 25 homers and was nearly a league-average hitter with a 98 wRC+. But in order for him to accumulate the 505 at-bats he had that season, Viciedo would need to outplay the other players he will be competing against, and a Navarro trade would likely need to happen in order to further clear the way.
In a more limited role, however, Viciedo could be similar to what the Tigers once had in Marcus Thames. Although Viciedo may not give the Blue Jays the whopping .293 ISO and 1.5 fWAR that Thames delivered for the Tigers back in 2006, he is still a player who has the ability to provide power off of the bench, which is a luxury that most teams would love to have.
Viciedo might struggle with the batting average, but it would hardly be shocking to see him reach double-digits in the home run department once again, even if he receives fewer at-bats than he is accustomed to getting. For what it is worth, he does have a .250 ISO and a 132 wRC+ in high-leverage situations over his career, meaning he could very well be a guy you would want to put in the game during a critical moment.
If he can crack the Opening Day roster, Viciedo could certainly be a difference-maker as a part-time player for the Blue Jays this upcoming season.
*All statistical information courtesy of Baseball Reference, ESPN.com, Fangraphs, MiLB.com and MLB.com
Brad Faber is a Senior Writer and Sabermetrics Columnist for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Brad_Faber, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on LinkedIn or Google.
