Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem: The odds game
It’s official: Dana White tweeted that Brock Lesnar will return to the Octagon on December 30th, and he will take on the UFC’s newest heavyweight acquisition, Alistair Overeem. This is a fight that many have been waiting for, and it will almost certainly do its part to raise the stagnating average PPV buyrate for 2011. With 5 events in a row drawing around 300k PPV buys, the UFC needs some big hits in the last quarter to keep revenue growth.
It is very questionable who has the advantage in this fight, and thus most betting lines are of a ‘pick-em’ nature (at least at the moment). Out of the sites that currently have a futures market open, Overeem is generally a VERY slight favourite. Aside from all the musings on the relative merits of the 2 fighters, there is 1 big question: how will Lesnar’s performance be affected by his long layoff due to diverticulitis? This is the 2nd time Lesnar has had a significant layoff due to illness, and no one knows what kind of issues this could cause in terms of fighting.
If Lesnar really is fully recovered, this is a tough fight for Overeem. Overeem’s weaknesses are wrestling and cardio. His chin is also questionable, as he’s been knocked out by Mauricio Rua, Ricardo Arona, Chuck Liddell, and others. Even the Ubereem version of Alistair has been knocked out. Overeem probably does not have the takedown defence to stop takedowns from wrestlers of Brock’s calibre, and he also doesn’t have the type of bottom game that can threaten submissions. Overeem always looks really tired as fights go on, and could barely stand and talk after the Fabricio Werdum fight, which did not feature much action.
On the other hand, Overeem is a far superior striker to Lesnar. Whether it’s punches or Uberknees, he knocks people out if they spend too much time standing with him. This guy won the K-1 World Grand Prix by beating 3 world class kickboxers in 1 night. Lesnar’s weakness is panicking when he gets hit and going into full turtle mode. If Lesnar tries a bullrush, is in the clinch for too long, or gets timed on a shoot, he’s going to eat a knee. The more time these 2 spend standing up, the more this fight favours The Reem. Additionally, while Overeem may not have a great BJJ game, he does have an effective guillotine. Lesnar has a tendency to shoot unset shots, and this could set up an Overeem sub victory.
All in all, the biggest question is Lesnar’s health. If he’s truly ready and he’s still the underdog, Lesnar is a good pick.
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Lorenzo is jacked!
big country called it right the first time when he said brock would never fight jds. he will also never step into the ring with overeem. the ufc will make money on promotions and such but again the fight will never happen regardless of brocks health. the guy cant take a punch, period.