Kyle Terada- USA TODAY SPORTS
When the New England Patriots let go of Wes Welker this offseason, most of Patriot Nation was outraged. The Patriots justified the move by promoting Danny Amendola as a guy who could replicate his stats, possibly being even better. Bill Belichick himself has lauded Amendola’s performance in camp thus far as well, talking up his dependability in particular.
With that being said, Amendola will not be Welker in 2013. Here are a few reasons why.
Firstly, there are injury problems facing Amendola, who has played four seasons as a member of the St. Louis Rams. In that time, he has played in 42 out of a possible 64 games. In other words, he has missed over one third of his games since entering the league.
Contrast that with Welker, and the numbers are staggering. Since joining the Patriots, Welker has missed just three out of a possible 96 regular season games. Amendola will never be able to show that kind of durability if you use his past career as an indicator.
In order to match Welker on the statistical level, Amendola will probably have to play every game, leading the NFL in catches. The reason I say that is because Welker routinely caught 100 balls and accumulated 1,000-plus yards receiving with the Pats with the exception of 2010. Amendola will also have to put up close to double-digit touchdowns, which will be hard for him since his career high in touchdowns is three.
Given Amendola’s shady injury past, I find it very hard to believe that he will put up those numbers year in and year out like Welker did, let alone in 2013.
Another reason why Amendola won’t be Wes Welker this year is because of Welker’s chemistry with Brady and his football IQ. When Welker first came to the Patriots, he was overlooked; but what he always had was supreme football intelligence.
After years of working with Brady, he used that intelligence to develop a rapport with him that will be extremely difficult to replicate. They were so in sync by the end, that people would say Welker and Brady communicated telepathically.
Not to say that Amendola is dumb, but to expect him to come in and learn both Brady’s tendencies and the entire Pats playbook in 2013 is way too much to ask. Wes Welker was able to do it because he was determined to prove his doubters wrong and was playing with a chip on his shoulder. With nobody in New England doubting Amendola’s ability, he will not have the drive that pushes a player to go from good to legendary.
For those of you that have gotten the impression that I dislike Amendola, this is not the case. I just do not believe that he is on the same level as Welker. If I had to predict a stat line for Amendola this season, I would say that he will play in 12 games, catching 60 balls for 650 yards and four TDs. The touchdown and yardage increases from a year ago would be a result of the quarterback upgrade to Brady.
In any case, the Patriots and their fans should temper their expectations for Amendola in 2013.
