While Rooney’s Hair Recovers, Liverpool Knocks United out of FA Cup
It’s become somewhat trendy to put time of possession on a pedestal, as if this one statistic were the only way to analyze a team’s showing. I blame both Barcelona and the Spanish national team; people watching their rise to dominance have assumed it was their control of the ball that set them above other teams. These people are party right. Both teams (it’s hard to tell them apart anymore) display a masterful ability to dictate the pace of matches by passing accurately, managing possession, and having their way in the midfield.
However, time of possession isn’t the only statistic that matters. It should go without saying that the most important stat is goals scored, but you’d think people have forgotten this obvious fact by the way they gush over teams that play “total football” (although few know the definition of this strategy, nor that it was originated by the Hungarians, not the precious Dutch). People who are obsessed with possession percentages forget that it’s not the whole story. A team can possess the ball for 90% of a match, but if all they’re doing is passing in their half of the field, without getting good chances on goal, then the best they can hope for is a respectable draw.
Saturday’s Manchester United-Liverpool match is a great example of the fatuousness of the prevailing conventional wisdom regarding possession percentage. United controlled possession for much of the game (60% of the game, according to the BBC). They kept the match at a “favorable” pace, and held the ball for long stretches, especially the last 20 minutes of the first half. But it was Liverpool who created more good chances on goal, Liverpool who won more corners, and Liverpool who ultimately came out on top, edging United out of the FA Cup (good riddance).
“Following the opening goal United enjoyed a long spell of possession, knocking the ball around in midfield without any end product,” reported Football365 in its post-game recap. Indeed, if there’s no end product, it doesn’t matter how much a team knocks the ball around. Barcelona and Spain are great teams because they can both possess the ball and, more importantly, use that possession to exploit weaknesses, pressure defenses, and create good shots on goal.
We’re all familiar with (or should be familiar with) the old line about there being lies, damn lies, and statistics, and so they should all be taken with an appropriate grain of salt. But if one does want to look to statistics to tell the story of a game or predict the outcome of future ones, then looking cumulatively at corners, shots on goal, and passing efficiency in the final third would all be better than simply looking at possession. But regardless, no stat (other than the status of Rooney’s hair) is more important than goals, right?
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