The Jays are coming off an 81-81 season, and despite a drop off in the wins column from 2010, there were a lot of positive signs for the future. Ricky Romero’s continued growth at the top of the rotation, the emergence of younger players like Brett Lawrie and Henderson Alvarez, and the emergence of Yunel Escobar at shortstop.
It’s hard to argue with the approach of GM Alex Anthopoulos (AA) over the past two seasons. During this time he’s shown himself to be extremely creative, and while he’s slightly unproven, he ranks among the best executives in the game along side Tampa’s Andrew Friedman. AA has managed to steal some high ceiling players in Escobar and Colby Rasmus while miraculously shedding the salary of Vernon Wells. If that wasn’t enough, he signed the best hitter in the American League, Jose Bautista, to an absolute bargain contract.
And make no mistake, Jose Bautista is the single reason why the Jays need to be aggressive this offseason. There isn’t a player in the organization, be it in the majors or minors, who brings the kind of upside he does. The 31 year old posted a career high in both batting average (302) and on base percentage (447), while posting a nearly identical slugging percentage (608) to his breakout season. His wins above replacement, better known as WAR, was an incredible 8.3 via Fangraphs.
The most important number of all those amazing statistics, however, is the 31. Players typically hit their prime around age 27, and decline in their 30′s. Bautista was a late bloomer, but given his age the Jays need to be proactive when building a contending team around him. There is no guarantee that 3-4 years down the line Bautista will be among the best players in the game. The Jays hit the jackpot when they got Bautista for nothing, but they can’t waste the best years of his career while he’s hitting like Albert Pujols.
That’s not to say he won’t still be productive in the future- if he’s posting an 850-900 OPS as a right fielder that is still a boost to the offense. It’s still an above average player. Just not an elite one, a perennial MVP candidate who is a force in the middle of the lineup. It’s tough to sit by and watch Bautista playing like the MVP year in and year out, only to watch the Jays settle for a 500 record.
Now isn’t the time for the Jays to sit by and wait for players to develop. They have the #2 farm in the game, and a wealth of prospects that can be traded for an impact player. Their payroll won’t likely break $80 M after arbitration and other free agent signings. They’ll have some money coming off the books in the next few years, once dead weight like Mark Teahen are officially off the books.
In my next article, we’ll focus a little more on some of the potential options for the Jays, and some of the positions in need of an upgrade.
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