There have been numerous rumors swirling around about the Colorado Rockies and Atlanta Braves being potential suitors for a Martin Prado trade in the past two weeks. This surfaced on the heels of the Braves’ potential rumor with the Kansas City Royals as they allegedly tried to trade Prado and Jair Jurrjens for Lorenzo Cain and Wil Myers. That trade was apparently too steep for the Royals and they moved on to trade for Jonathan Sanchez from the San Francisco Giants.
After that alleged deal fell through, the one team that has consistently been in on the rumors with the Braves is the Rockies. From all indications and reports, the Rockies are “in love” with Martin Prado. There is some sentiment that the Rockies were not aggressive enough last offseason in their trade pursuits as well as free agent pursuits and this is leading them to go all out in their pursuit of Prado.
As a writer for an Atlanta Braves’ blog, I can’t blame them. I like Prado. I think he plays hard and is a solid player to have on your team. He plays multiple positions well and he is an outstanding second baseman. He is a solid contact hitter that has thrived at the top of the Braves’ lineup in his first two seasons as an everyday player.
He is coming off a terrible year in 2011, which he struggled with an injury that he seemingly never overcame. He developed a staph infection and had to have his leg open for a month before it healed. After he came back, he was never quite the same.
The issue with Prado on the Braves’ current team is that they need more power out of their outfield. He plays adequate defense in left field, but he is a much better third baseman, and probably an elite second baseman. With Dan Uggla now residing in Atlanta, Prado can’t play second any more. Uggla’s defense is horrendous, but the Braves don’t have him because of defense.
If all indications are correct, the Braves seem like they want to trade Prado. They are in an enviable position, though. They don’t have to trade Prado. He is only going to cost them $4-5 million this next year through arbitration. His value seems to be very high right now, as teams seem to be kicking the tires on him.
If the Rockies are pursuing Prado hard, the Braves can sit back and wait for what they want from the Rockies.
Initial reports are that a deal would likely include Seth Smith. When I heard this rumor, I admit I had the thought “hell no!” What value could Seth Smith offer the Braves that they don’t already have? The Braves have an over-abundance of quality left-handed hitters and Seth Smith is white noise in that regard. The biggest concern for me is his splits in Colorado and away from Colorado. Look at this:
| I | Split | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | tOPS+ | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 608 | 120 | 180 | 39 | 14 | 31 | 113 | 9 | 68 | 101 | .296 | .366 | .559 | .925 | .306 | 120 | |
| Away | 677 | 80 | 174 | 39 | 5 | 20 | 68 | 8 | 74 | 150 | .257 | .332 | .418 | .750 | .303 | 82 |
Smith has a huge drop in Slugging % and OPS away from Colorado. This doesn’t bode well from the Braves’ needs and what they are hoping to gain by trading away Prado. They need more production out of their outfield and this is a red flag that cannot and should not be ignored.
Furthermore, Smith’s splits against RHP and LHP is signficant. Look at the following:
| I | Split | G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | tOPS+ | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP as LHB | 436 | 1072 | 311 | 69 | 17 | 47 | 153 | 123 | 202 | .290 | .364 | .518 | .881 | .317 | 111 | |
| vs LHP as LHB | 165 | 213 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 49 | .202 | .269 | .319 | .588 | .238 | 43 |
Smith is strictly a platoon player. If the Braves are acquiring him to play as a platoon, or have enough faith in Fredi Gonzalez to utilize him in this way, then he may be useful.
The question isn’t if he will be useful, however. The question is would the Braves be better with Prado or Smith? Trading Prado creates another hole on the team. His absence would mean that they would then need a backup third baseman for the fragile Chipper Jones. Prado’s ability to play multiple positions makes him a tremendous value. Last year, the Braves realized the value of having Omar Infante around, though he was used as a piece to acquire Uggla. These types of players are hard to come by. Thus, Prado’s value has to be much higher than Seth Smith.
All indications are that the value for Prado is high. The Braves want something else in return for Smith. They apparently are asking for Charlie Blackmon or Tim Wheeler. Both are center field prospects and both are ranked high in the Rockies’ organizational prospects. Wheeler has tremendous power as he hit 33 HRs in AA this past season with a .287/.365/.535 line. If the Braves were able to get him from the Rockies, he may become the best hitting prospect in the Braves’ entire farm system instantly.
Blackmon is no slouch either. He played last year in AAA where he hit 10 home runs and put up this impressive line: .342/.396/.576. That was easily his best numbers of his career. He did notch 102 AB in the majors last season and hit .255/.277/.296 with 1 home run.
It is easy to be blinded by power and the potential that Wheeler has is intriguing. Blackmon, though, had a better year than Wheeler with his .576 slugging %. Hitting .342 is pretty impressive as well.
It seems like the Braves are positioning themselves to play 2013 without Michael Bourn. This is two teams that they have been rumored to match up as potential trade partners and they are wanting center fielder’s in return.
This time of year is challenging for fans. They have to not believe everything they read and trust their General Manager to make this team better. Sending Prado to Colorado would hurt, but if Frank Wren gets the right pieces back, they may be better off moving forward.
nice article. i live in Colorado and I’m a big rockies fan. I think Martin Prado would be a good fit a Coors Field. The Braves, as you mentioned, will probably ask for Seth Smith and one of their top prospects. I think Blackmon would be a good fit there. He showed a lot of potential in his short time in the majors and is also a Georgia native. I think the deciding factor in this trade scenario will be later this week at the Rockies managers meeting.
I can’t blame you for wanting Prado. I like him, though, I admit I think he is somewhere in between 2010 and 2011. He is a good player and would be an outstanding 2B. The only way I see the Rockies getting him is to have a pretty sweet deal coming back to Atlanta. Yesterday, reports were that the Rockies would not trade Wheeler or Blackmon for Prado. That almost certainly assures that they will not get him. Can you imagine how well he would hit in Colorado?