Hypothetical Challenge Trade – Travis Snider for Domonic Brown
**Note** This trade has not occurred, nor has it been rumoured to happen. It is simply a hypothetical trade to create discussion on the value of Travis Snider and Domonic Brown.
The challenge trade is one of the most exciting swaps in all of baseball. Two players, each with their own strengths and flaws, are traded because the other team thinks it can maximize their potential. In recent years we’ve seen a few that have been quite one sided, such as when the Texas Rangers traded John Danks to the Chicago White Sox for pitcher Brandon McCarthy. Once Danks added a cutter to his repertoire he became an outstanding starter for the White Sox, going 54-56 with a 4.03 ERA and earned 16.3 fWAR between 2007 and 2011. He was the best White Sox pitcher right behind Mark Buehrle. Texas wasn’t as lucky with McCarthy, as he struggled during his three seasons there going 13-15 with a 4.68 ERA. It wasn’t until 2011 after studying sabermetric principles and applying them to his pitching that McCarthy would find success. McCarthy was fantastic in 2011, but unfortunately for the Rangers he was pitching for the rival Oakland Athletics. While the win-loss record wasn’t very impressive for Danks, he was still an above average starter making the trade a huge victory for the White Sox.
Conceptually the trade worked well for both teams because while the two pitchers had a high ceiling in terms of their potential, both had struggled in their initial debuts. Danks had a 5.50 ERA in his first season with Texas, while McCarthy had a 4.39 ERA over two seasons with the White Sox split between the rotation and the bullpen.
I bring up the Danks trade because there are another pair of prospects who play the same position, have been considered two of the best prospects in the game, and have yet to find success at the major league level. Despite being ranked in the top 10 by Baseball America, both players may find themselves back in the minors, unable to earn a starting job in the majors. Their development has been toyed with at times, and if these players are to succeed it will likely come through a change of scenery.
Because of these reasons, I think it would make a lot of sense for the Philadelphia Phillies to trade outfielder Domonic Brown to the Toronto Blue Jays for outfielder Travis Snider. Let’s take a look at both of these players to see if the deal makes any sense.
Travis Snider was drafted 14th overall back in the 2006 draft. He was considered one of the best high school bats in the draft, and he showed why immediately by posting a 979 OPS in rookie ball. He spent all of 2007 in A ball, hitting 313/377/525, although his plate discipline needed some work as he had a 49:129 BB:K ratio. The walk rate was strong for a 19 year old who was younger than most of the players he faced, but the strikeout rate was far too high.
In 2008 Snider had 66 at bats in A+ where he posted an 891 OPS, and was quickly moved up to AA. He spent most of the season there, and for the first time in his career he struggled. He hit 262/357/461, showing a strong walk rate but a very high strikeout rate. Snider’s performance was fairly good for his age and league, as his 121 wRC+ meant he hit 21% above league average. However, this was a far cry from the past season where he had a 146 wRC+ in A ball, and he shouldn’t have been promoted. However the Jays pushed him to AAA, where he managed to succeed despite a poor walk rate and one of the worst strikeout rates of his young career.
It’s 2008 where a lot of people think Snider got rushed, and it’s a fair criticism of the Jays organization. Although Toronto was in second place and out of the playoff race, the Blue Jays decided to call up Travis Snider to the majors. He held his own, hitting 301/338/466 along the way leading many to believe that Snider was a superstar in the making. After all, most players who debut at such a young age tend to become above average regulars, or even Hall of Fame calibre players.
This was why many expected Snider to take the leap forward in 2009. Looking back we shouldn’t be surprised that Snider struggled in the majors, and thanks to injuries and ineffectiveness he found his way back to the minors. This story would repeat itself in 2010 and 2011, and despite posting some decent numbers, Snider would always find his way back to the minors.
His defence improved in left, where at this point he’s considered slightly above average. Snider’s best season was 2010, where he hit 255/304/463, good for a 104 wRC+ and 1.2 WAR in 319 at bats. The former #6 prospect has not been developed properly by the Jays, as they truly had no excuse for playing older veterans with no upside over the former top prospect. The Jays were not a team that was truly in contention for the playoffs during Snider’s time in the majors, and they should have found a spot for him to play everyday. The fact that they didn’t is one of the main reasons that heading into 2012, we know as much about Snider’s ability to hit in the majors as we did in 2009.
Even worse for the Jays development of Snider is that he has batted in the 9th spot in the lineup more than any other spot in his career. For those keeping score at home, 298 of his 799 career at bats (or 37% of his at bats) have come from the 9th spot in the batting order. Yes, one of the best prospects in baseball, a hitter with a career 906 OPS in the minors, has batted most often in the #9 slot, a spot that is reserved for the worst hitter on a team. We don’t talk about the confidence of a hitter very often, but you’re not showing much faith in a player when most of his at bats come in the bottom third of the order. Especially one who has spent his entire life batting in the middle of a lineup. Snider has a combined 62 at bats from the 3-6 spots, 55 of which come from the #6 slot.
All this isn’t to say that Snider can’t turn himself into a dynamic hitter – just that it’s not likely to happen in Toronto where a poor at bat could turn into a demotion to AAA.
So we can understand why the Jays might want to trade Snider, but why would the Phillies want to trade Brown?
Domonic Brown was originally selected in the second round in 2006, the same draft as Travis Snider. Unlike Snider, Brown wasn’t immediately successful in the minors, and didn’t have much success until 2008 in A ball. Brown posted an 800 OPS that season, and once he started putting his tools to use he was a fixture on Baseball America’s top prospect list. He ranked as high as #4 heading into the 2011 season.
After 2008 Brown obliterated his minor league competition, routinely posting 900 OPS seasons in both AA and AAA. The Phillies wisely let one of their top prospects take his time in the minors, often spending a full season at each level. They had the luxury of several capable outfielders in Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez, so even though Brown might have deserved an earlier call up the Phillies could take their time developing him. It’s interesting to note that a team that had all the incentive in the world to rush Brown, the Phillies, took the cautious approach with his development while the team that had no incentive to rush him, the Jays, pushed Snider harder than they needed too and likely set his progress back for several years.
Brown struggled in his 2010 debut, posting a 612 OPS with significantly below average defence (-3.9 UZR) in 70 at bats. Brown was just 22 at the time, so the Phillies sent him back to AAA the following year to get some more playing time. He returned in 2011 and showed some improvement, posting a 725 OPS with below average defence in right. However, he did show signs of a break out, as his 25:35 BB:K ratio is a very promising sign that Brown finally has a feel for the strike zone.
Unfortunately for Brown, the Phillies may not make him an everyday starter for 2012. He has shown some improvements, but the Phillies seem to have soured on him and are looking at using other options. Brown deserves an opportunity to start, and it’s likely that in 2012 we’d see him deliver on the promise he’s shown in the minors. However, it’s not looking like that will happen anytime soon in Philadelphia.
Snider may have been rushed as a prospect, but to this point he’s had the best season of the two. He’s shown better defence in the outfield, and while he struggled significantly in 2011, he has been the better bat of the two over their short careers. Both of these players should be outstanding hitters, capable of anchoring the middle of the lineup. While it would be risky for the Jays and Phillies to trade their former star prospects, it’s likely that they both will need a change of scenery in order for them to reach their potential.
The Danks trade is proof that a challenge trade can be beneficial to younger players who haven’t delivered on their potential. While this is only a hypothetical trade scenario, it just might be the best way to see Travis Snider and Domonic Brown live up to their potential.
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