Scott’s Mock Draft Analysis


August 26, 2010 by Scott Rogers  
Filed under Football

Rant Sports recently held its first mock NFL fantasy draft, of which I was a participant.

Click here to review the results of the first-ever RantSports Fantasy Football Mock Draft.

As the lead fantasy writer for this site, I take pride in doing my homework. I stay on top of injuries, I try to watch as many preseason games as possible and I have participated in countless mock drafts in an attempt to provide you, the reader, with the best possible strategy for your own drafts.

Am I right all the time, and do I anticipate that all my “predictions” will be correct this upcoming year? Of course not, but I can say that if I am wrong about something, it is not because I did not put the work in.

With that being said, below you can find my analysis of the first five rounds of our draft, which will hopefully serve as an example of what not to do in your draft. This was a twelve owner snake draft, by the way.

The First 5 Rounds

The first round was, for the most part, the best round in this draft. Three QBs were selected, with Drew Brees somewhat surprisingly being the first, followed by Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. The real upset of the round was Adrian Peterson being selected 1st overall, which is a pick I support. As I recently noted in another article, due to the injury to Sidney Rice, I believe Peterson will see an uptick in stats. Michael Turner was valued very high by a member of the draft as well, going 4th overall, allowing Ray Rice to slide to me at 5th. As expected, Andre Johnson was the first WR off the board, going 7th overall, though surprisingly Calvin Johnson followed him at 10th overall. This pick probably could have waited into the next round, but I don’t hate it.

In the second round, things started to fall apart. Brandon Marshall became the third WR taken at 14th overall, which would have been a good pick if the owner hadn’t selected Manning in the previous round. So after the first two rounds, this owner came away with not even one elite RB, a surefire way to lose a league. Ryan Mathews became the second RB off the board in the round, following DeAngelo Williams, which is looking like a good pick considering the talent Mathews has displayed thus far in the preseason. Tom Brady was also selected in this round, as was Philip Rivers and Matt Schaub, cutting the number of elite QBs from last year down to six.

The third round was the round of the WRs. Miles Austin, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Sidney Rice, DeSean Jackson and Steve Smith (NYG) were all selected. Out of all of these, Sidney Rice is the only pick I disagree with, but this is completely due to his surgery which, at the time of the draft, had not yet been made public. This is also the round where the younger–yet still intriguing–RBs were taken, with Jamaal Charles, Shonn Greene, Beanie Wells and Jahvid Best all being selected. Oddly enough, the second overall pick in this round was Pierre Thomas, a back who works completely out of a shared backfield and more than likely could have been selected much later than this. No QBs were selected.

This trend continued into the fourth round, where once again those who chose QBs earlier needed to select skill position players in order to account for the missing of earlier, more proven players. Those who didn’t choose a QB early realized that they could wait a few more rounds and took advantage of the still strong group of skill players. Joe Flacco was the only QB selected, though I thought this was somewhat of a reach. In the end, he will probably justify this pick. The first two TEs were also selected in this round, with Vernon Davis being followed by Dallas Clark to close the round.

Round five saw a pretty even distribution between WRs and RBs, and for the most part, I cannot disagree with the selections. The only complaint I really have in this round is Kevin Kolb going second overall. He was the only QB selected in the round and honestly, he could have been grabbed a lot later. That was a poor value pick.

Individual Team Analysis

Phil
1. Adrian Peterson RB
2. Matt Schaub QB
3. Miles Austin WR
4. Dallas Clark TE
5. Reggie Bush RB

This team is fairly solid, though I am concerned about Reggie Bush being the second RB and the lack of a real proven WR. Though Austin had a monster year last season, it is only one year. I would have taken him and felt good about it, though. Dallas Clark is the one TE I recommend taking early if you can grab him; most of the time he is the No. 1 option for a great offensive football team. I expect Schaub to continue to put up huge numbers as long as he stays healthy.

Chris D.
1. Chris Johnson RB
2. Randy Moss WR
3. Pierre Thomas RB
4. Vernon Davis TE
5. Kevin Kolb QB

I’m a fan of the first two selections, but the final three are poor at best. As I already noted, Thomas was a reach where plenty of other/better RBs were available. Davis is good and has plenty of potential, but this team could have really used another WR. Kolb tied for the worst pick in the first five rounds of the draft with only the Thomas pick. Overall, this was a very bad draft for this owner.

Heather
1. Maurice Jones-Drew RB
2. Philip Rivers QB
3. Roddy White WR
4. CJ Spiller RB
5. Michael Crabtree WR

I like the No. 1’s for this team, but hate everything behind it. Jones-Drew is as consistent as they come, Rivers was selected earlier than I thought he should be, Roddy White was a steal at that pick, Spiller has the potential to be great, but I see this as a reach and I just would not feel comfortable with Crabtree as my second WR. He’s the No. 1 WR on a team that wants to run the ball, but I see him more as a flex option or 3rd WR if your league offers one.

Brett
1. Michael Turner RB
2. Reggie Wayne WR
3. Greg Jennings WR
4. Matt Forte RB
5. Hakeem Nicks WR

I am a big fan of this team. The picks were smart and largely got the best value possible. Forte is somewhat of a gamble, but he has shown the spark in preseason games that he appeared to lack last year. Nicks is a riser who I believe will put up huge numbers this season in only his second year.

Brandon
1. Drew Brees QB
2. Rashard Mendenhall RB
3. Sidney Rice WR
4. Jonathan Stewart RB
5. Chad Ochocinco WR

I like some picks on this team, and hate some others. Brees was taken too early, Mendenhall should be good to decent this year, I liked the Rice pick at the time, but of course he should not be drafted now, hopefully Stewart will continue getting substantial touches this year (he’s a clear starter if he does) and Ochocinco I have no faith in.

Kevin
1. Andre Johnson WR
2. Tom Brady QB
3. Shonn Greene RB
4. Knowshon Moreno RB
5. Percy Harvin WR

I love the Johnson pick. He basically functions as a No. 1 RB, yet this teams RBs I hate. Greene has had a few good games in the playoffs but has shown little else and Moreno did nothing of note last season. Brady was a poor pick considering where he was selected (and the fact that you can wait on a QB who will put up similar or better numbers). Harvin could have a huge year if he can somehow get his migraines under control; I think it’s a good gamble to make though.

Alex
1. Steven Jackson RB
2. Ryan Grant RB
3. Beanie Wells RB
4. Joe Flacco QB
5. Wes Welker WR

This team has great RB depth, but no WRs. The way that the draft worked out though, he really had no other choice than to pick the valuable RBs in front of him. Flacco was the one reach, this switch could have probably been swapped out with a talented WR. As long as Welker is healthy, he will put up consistent yardage points, though he will lack the TDs a No. 1 WR should provide.

Dan
1. Frank Gore RB
2. Cedric Benson RB
3. DeSean Jackson WR
4. Anquan Boldin WR
5. Michael Bush RB

I really like this team. Gore was a good pick for where he was taken, though I’m not his biggest fan. Benson should pick up where he left off last year, while Jackson and Boldin should put up solid numbers. I love the Bush pick; in fact I was hoping to grab him in the sixth round of this draft. He should see the majority of the carries this season for the Raiders.

Eric
1. Calvin Johnson WR
2. Ryan Mathews RB
3. Tony Romo QB
4. Antonio Gates TE
5. Mike Wallace WR

I worry about the Mathews pick here and that Johnson could suffer through another down year, though I’m 90 percent sure he won’t. Romo could end up being the No. 1 QB with all the weapons he has, but I would have taken another WR or RB if in this owner’s spot and waited on a QB. Gates should see a further boost in stats with Vincent Jackson likely sitting out and Wallace could end up being a steal. The guy is really, really fast.

Chris W.
1. Peyton Manning QB
2. Brandon Marshall WR
3. Jahvid Best RB
4. Marques Colston WR
5. Ronnie Brown RB

I hate this team. Manning should be productive as usual, but I would have passed on him. I would have picked Fitzgerald or Wayne over Marshall. Best could be good, but he should be a much later pick. Colston is solid and consistent, but he won’t put up huge numbers due to all the other talent around him. Brown cant stay healthy, and there’s just too many Dolphins on this team for me.

Tony
1. Aaron Rodgers QB
2. DeAngelo Williams RB
3. Steve Smith (NYG) WR
4. Joseph Addai RB
5. Mike Sims-Walker WR

This is a solid team. Rodgers is the one QB I see worth drafting early, Williams should have a big year if he’s healthy while Smith isn’t exactly an ideal No. 1 WR but he will put up solid numbers. Addai puts up points by timely TDs, but they would really like for Donald Brown to take carries away from him in his contract year. Sims-Walker is interesting as long as he stays healthy.

Lastly, but not in any means least, here is my team:

Scott
1. Ray Rice RB
2. Larry Fitzgerald WR
3. Jamaal Charles RB
4. LeSean McCoy RB
5. Steve Smith (CAR) WR

I was surprised to see Rice fall to me at 5th overall; I fully expect for him to continue putting up big numbers as the centerpiece of a now very lethal offense. Fitzgerald was too good to pass up on, though yes, I am worried about Matt Leinart. I just figured that all you have to do is put the ball somewhere around Fitz and he will come down with it. I wanted to take a WR in the third round, but with the majority of solid ones off the board when it came to me, I decided that I had to take Charles. McCoy slipped to the fourth round, and since he is one of the few lead backs left in the NFL (though I don’t think he’s shown enough to warrant this distinction) it was a great value pick. Steve Smith in the 5th could be a steal–he really connected well with Matt Moore at the end of last season. Hopefully he will carry this over into this season.

Overall, I was pleased with my team. I believe I made the best picks for each situation and would feel fine entering the season with these guys rounding out my top five picks.

As, after all, I’m sure you have already noticed but I would be the clear cut favorite for this league.

There’s no debate about that.

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