The Name Game: Quarterback Matts


September 9, 2010 by Tony Andracki  
Filed under Football

Did you ever notice how many quarterbacks are named “Matt” in this league? Seriously, it’s like a positional requirement or something. Seven different starting-caliber quarterbacks (including the now-unemployed Matt Leinart). Out of 32. Meaning almost a quarter of the league’s quarterbacks are named “Matt.”

Despite the commonality of the name, however, not all Quarterback Matts are synonymous, especially when it comes to fantasy football.

So, I’ve broken down all seven guys and provided analysis to where each guy should be drafted and what to expect numbers-wise from each player.

Matt Schaub

NEW ORLEANS - AUGUST 21: Matt Schaub of the Houston Texans throws the ball against the New Orleans Saints at the Louisiana Superdome on August 21, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

The best of the Quarterback Matts, for sure. Schaub led the NFL in passing yards last year with 4,770 to go along with his 29 touchdowns. Schaub started his career as a very capable backup to Michael Vick’s pre-incarceration days in Atlanta, filling in admirably whenever Vick was out injured. Then, Schaub finally caught a break when Houston brass decided they had had enough with the David Carr experiment and let Schaub take over the reigns of the passing game in South Texas. However, he couldn’t avoid injury the first two seasons, missing five games each year with various bumps and bruises. When healthy, he showed flashes of excellence, but nobody really knew what to expect from him in a full 16-game season.

No more.

Schaub’s 2009 put him in the truly elite group of fantasy quarterbacks. He’s only 29, so he has plenty of good years left. He’s got the NFL’s best receiver in Andre Johnson to throw to, not to mention one of the best receiving tight ends in Owen Daniels and a slew of other options including Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones. And, he’s on a team that has yet to have a consistent running back, let alone a consistent rushing attack, so he will continue to get a bunch of chances to sling it. The only problem with Schaub is that he is injury prone, with 2009 as the only healthy season under his belt. But boy what a season it was. You can’t predict injuries, so don’t even begin to try. If it truly worries you, make sure to take a good backup like David Garrard or Vince Young, guys who are serviceable starting fantasy QBs that you can get late in the draft.

Predicted Draft Round: 2-4
Predicted stats: 4,600 passing yards, 30 TDs, 15 INTs

Matt Ryan

Ryan is an interesting player. He had an exceptional rookie year in ’08 by the NFL’s standards, posting an 87.7 QB Rating. In fantasy, his 3,440 yards and 16 TDs weren’t much more than a bye week fill-in. Everybody expected him to make a huge jump in 2009, but his numbers actually took a hit across the board, with the exception of touchdowns, which increased to 22. That may have been due to the inside presence of the great Tony Gonzalez, but it’s no matter. Ryan’s yards dipped to 2,916, his INTs rose to 14 and he lost the art of the big play (31 20+yard and only 4 40+ yard passes in 2009 compared to 45 and 9 in the same categories in ’08).

Why? Well, let’s attribute it to a sophomore slump. He did throw for six more TDs in two less games, so that’s room for improvement. If he can get his yards back up to a fantasy starter’s level, Ryan could be a pretty good No. 1 quarterback. He’s got Michael Turner to force defenses to respect the run and one of the league’s best receivers in Roddy White and top tight ends in Tony Gonzalez. Ryan is only 25, so he should improve pretty steadily the next couple of years or so while he continues to develop as an NFL quarterback. He should be available late in your draft, as well. So late, in fact, that he may be your second quarterback. You could do worse. Much worse.

Predicted Draft Round: 7-12
Predicted stats: 3,200 yards, 23 TDs, 15 INTs

Matthew Stafford

Let’s face it, the only reason anybody considers Stafford fantasy-starter material is because of his Week 11 performance in 2009 when he threw for 422 yards and 5 tuddies. The fact that he throws to the physical freak Calvin Johnson doesn’t hurt either, I’m sure.

But, the problem with those Week 11 numbers is that they came against the Cleveland Browns in the Toliet Bowl of 2010 (the best game between the two worst teams in the league).

The good about those numbers is that they translate to 42 fantasy points in most fantasy leagues. However, go around and ask how many people actually started Stafford that week. Matter of fact, go try and see how many people even owned him during that week. You’d be hard-pressed to find many.

Week 11, however, was a taste of things to come from the 22-year-old gunslinger. He showed good decision-making, accuracy, arm strength and most of all, showed his leadership and toughness potential.

Stafford has one of the leagues most physically gifted receivers to throw to and the Lions went out and picked up Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler and drafted Jahvid Best, so Stafford does have the weapons to have a pretty decent fantasy year. Remember, too, that he plays for a poor team, so they should be behind often and forced to throw. He likely still will have too many growing pains to be weekly starter material, but you never know. He’s worth drafting late and stashing on your bench, only inserting him into the lineup when he has good matchups against poor passing defenses.

Predicted Draft Round: 12-16
Predicted stats: 3,400 yards, 18 TDs, 18 INTs

Matt Cassel

Hmm…Cassel is a truly interesting option. I have never been a big fan of his. If he was good enough to be a starting QB in the NFL, then why had nobody even given him a shot in college? Yes, he backed up Carson Palmer at USC, but he couldn’t transfer or something? He was a relative unknown when he filled in for the injured Tom Brady in ’08, but I was really, really skeptical of the big contract the Chiefs handed him after that season. I thought–and still believe–that Cassel was just a product of a good team in a good system with good coaches. In KC, he doesn’t really have that.

What he does have is the propensity to hold on to the ball too long (47 sacks in ’08 in NE with the same line that allowed just 21 sacks on Brady the season before) and a relatively bad offensive line in KC. He also has a big fat contract that pays him no matter how well he performs on the field. So, what does he have to play for? The Chiefs are a long, long shot to make the playoffs this year. He’s already paid and he clearly is just fine as a backup. I question his motivation, honestly.

So, temper your expecations after his solid ’08 season (3,693 yards, 21 TDs, 11 INTs). That’s his absolute ceiling as a fantasy player. He regressed in every single category with the Chiefs in ’09, upping his picks to 16 with just 16 TDs. He does add the occasional point for rushing yards (189 rushing yards last season) and he has Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles, Chris Chambers and Dexter McCluster as weapons, so he’s not a horrible backup in deep leagues. But, if you’re in a standard 10, 12-team league, you’d be hurting with Cassel as your No. 2 QB.

Predicted Draft Round: 16+
Predicted stats: 3,100 yards, 17 TDs, 16 INTs

Matt Moore

You can’t deny it–Matt Moore did well filling in for Jake Delhomme last year. His 98.5 rating was definitely noteworthy. And he developed a rapport with No. 1 WR Steve Smith. So, it’s understandable that John Fox handed him the reigns for starting signal-caller, at least for a year while Jimmy Clausen adapts to the NFL life.

But, what should you expect from him fantasywise? Well, don’t expect the last five games of the 2009 season to project out to the equivalent numbers over a 16-game season (3,200 yards, 25 TDs, 3 INT). That TD-INT ratio is better than Tom Brady’s in 2007. And he is no Tom Brady.

Moore has thrown for more than 200 yards just twice in his eight career starts, which projects to just four times over a full 16-game season, even with his hot finish to ’09. That means that in  standard leagues where you get 1 fantasy point for every 25 passing yards, he nets you at least 8 points a week in yardage just four times. He doesn’t run the ball, like at all, so his fantasy value is pretty dependent on his TDs, which are bound to come back to Earth. Matt Moore will not throw for 25 passing scores, mark my words.

The good news: Moore does have Steve Smith, one of the most dynamic, electric receivers in the game. All that speed and agility make him so hard to cover, so you know Moore will connect with Smith when he’s open. He also has one of the league’s best running games (if not the best) to keep defenses honest.

On the other hand, since the rushing game is so good, Moore probably won’t get many chances to throw, as he will be handing off more often. And, apart from Smith, there’s really no viable passing option.

You could do worse than Moore as your backup, but probably not much worse. He could surprise, but it’s also just as likely that he bombs and Clausen gets the nod to start sooner than 2011.

Predicted Draft Round: 16+
Predicted stats: 2,900 yards, 16 TDs, 14 INTs

Matt Hasselbeck

It pains me to see Hasselbeck so down in fantasy leagues. He helped me to fantasy success in several seasons, including in 2007. However, that was also the last year that he was a viable fantasy option at QB. Over the past two seasons, Hasselbeck has been injured and largely ineffective, throwing just 22 touchdowns as compared to 27 interceptions.

He also just lost his leading receiver in T.J. Who’s-your-momma and Mike Williams is now his No. 1 option. Yes, that Mike Williams, the career bust formerly of the Detroit Lions. Golden Tate is a decent fantasy option, though probably not yet in his rookie season. Seattle’s line is also suspect, but luckily, so too, is their defense, which will mean playing from behind and more throws for Hasselbeck.

He’s simply no longer a good fantasy option and at 34, it’s unlikely he gets back to the days of 3,900 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. He might make a good backup, but there are plenty of other quarterbacks I’d rather have on my bench then him, at least to start the season.

Predicted Draft Round: 16+
Predicted stats: 3,200 yards, 16 TDs, 17 INTs

Matt Leinart

Don’t draft him. Don’t do it. Even if he signs on somewhere, he’ll be a worse fantasy option than JaMarcus Russell has been the past couple of seasons. If Leinart couldn’t hack it over Derek Anderson, he simply doesn’t belong on a fantasy team. Period.

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