We just had our yearly fantasy football keeper league draft at work this week. I will be breaking down the draft in the second of my five-piece mock draft series. Keep in mind, when I list an owner not having a pick in a certain round, it simply just means that pick was used on a keeper and they have elected to forfeit their pick in the current round for the 2011 season. We each had an opportunity to keep up to four players, but some owners chose to keep less. Either way, this draft will give you a great indication of where players are being selected in a keeper league format. In most instances in a keeper league, you must over value and consequently over draft some players due to the lack of depth from the player pool. For example, Jason Witten is on average being draft between rounds 4-6 in normal drafts. However, in a keeper league with a more shallow player pool available, Witten is being taken anywhere from rounds 2-4. Keep that in mind when evaluating our mock draft. It is a standard league scoring PPR (point per reception) format with bonuses for 150+ yard games rushing or receiving. Quarterbacks also get a five point bonus for throwing over 400 yards. It is a snake style draft format, so the player with the last pick in the round will select first in the following round, so on and so forth. We do not use a tight end position. Instead, he have 2 running back starters, 2 wide receiver slots and 2 flex positions that you can play RB, WR or TE’s. We could not keep anyone selected in the first three rounds of last year’s draft, so the first three rounds should be close to a normal fantasy football league draft.
Owners:
#1 overall pick – Cowboy
#2 overall pick – Andrew
#3 overall pick – Jeff
#4 overall pick – Tim
#5 overall pick – Tony
#6 overall pick – Adam
#7 overall pick – Lucas
#8 overall pick – Ryan S.
#9 overall pick – Erik
#10 overall pick – Corey
#11 overall pick – Ryan B.
#12 overall pick – Billy
Mock Draft Round 3:
25) Cedric Benson
26) Peyton Manning
27) Brandon Marshall
28) Marques Colston
29) Ryan Matthews
30) Shonn Greene
31) DeAngelo Williams
32) Jason Witten
33) Julio Jones
34) Anquan Boldin
35) Joseph Addai
36) Beanie Wells
Round Overview: You can clearly see that the running back position is starting to dwindle, and a lot of the backs left on the board are risks. Cedric Benson is the first pick of the round, followed by Peyton Manning. I don’t trust either of these men. Benson is in a horrible offensive situation in Cinci where he will be the focal point of every match-up this season. I do not trust Manning, as I have said in all my column’s this season. His neck surgery causes me some concern and I am not quite sure he will be the same Peyton Manning as usual…but then again, he is Peyton and could prove me completely wrong. I reached big time for Ryan Matthews with the fifth pick of the round, however as I said after Benson, it is a lot of unproven backs. With Matthews, his upside is great. He had 222 yards rushing in his final two games of the 2010 season, giving owners hope he could emerge finally in his sophomore season. Here come the rest of the risky RB picks with Shonn Greene, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai and Beanie Wells being selected later in the third. All can be viewed as sleepers this season, considering their individual situations. However, each pick comes with great risk, being taken so early in a draft where teams must secure the best talent available on the board first. I love the Jason Witten pick considering his huge 2010 stats. He is an elite level receiver at an even more elite tight end position. I love Julio Jones…However, with this being a keeper league and the owners not allowed to keep anyone until the fourth round, this can be considered a useless pick. Julio will no doubt make a huge dent in the Atlanta offense this season, but it is his future value that makes him such a lustful keeper pick. As a regular player who will return to the player pool next season, Jones is an above average receiver for the 2011 season at best in our draft.
Mock Draft Round 4:
37) Fred Jackson
38) Santana Moss
39) Tony Romo
40) No Pick (Jahvid Best, keeper)
41) Daniel Thomas
42) No Pick (Matt Forte, keeper)
43) Ryan Grant
44) Jermichael Finley
45) No Pick (Wes Welker, keeper)
46) No Pick (Roddy White, keeper)
47) No Pick (Felix Jones, keeper)
48) No Pick (Tim Hightower, keeper)
Round Overview: The keeper picks start in this round, as they begin to rear their head into owner’s picks now. I love the Tony Romo selection here in the 4th round with the 39th overall pick. Considering how many quarterback’s have already been taken, Romo is slightly undervalued in this position. The Cowboys offense will be out of control this year. Any Dallas offensive player is a good pick in most situations. Daniel Thomas is a bit of a reach here, but I can understand Ryan’s justification with the selection. Do you trust Reggie Bush? I don’t and neither do Dolphin fans. Thomas is a big, 230-pound rookie back out of Kansas State University. He is ready to handle the load, but the question is how much of the workload will he receive? The Miami offense is so anemic, it worries me that Thomas may be putting up Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams-type numbers. Jermichael Finley may be the steal of this round. If he can prove to be a healthy body this season, there is no question he is the second option in one of the best offenses in all of football. It doesn’t hurt him either that he has Aaron Rodgers throwing his passes. Check out my next article for rounds 5 & 6 to be reviewed…
