We just had our yearly fantasy football keeper league draft at work this week. I will be breaking down the draft in the first of my five-piece mock draft series. Keep in mind, when I list an owner not having a pick in a certain round, it simply just means that pick was used on a keeper and they have elected to forfeit their pick in the current round for the 2011 season. We each had an opportunity to keep up to four players, but some owners chose to keep less. Either way, this draft will give you a great indication of where players are being selected in a keeper league format. In most instances in a keeper league, you must over value and consequently over draft some players due to the lack of depth from the player pool. For example, Jason Witten is on average being draft between rounds 4-6 in normal drafts. However, in a keeper league with a more shallow player pool available, Witten is being taken anywhere from rounds 2-4. Keep that in mind when evaluating our mock draft. It is a standard league scoring PPR (point per reception) format with bonuses for 150+ yard games rushing or receiving. Quarterbacks also get a five point bonus for throwing over 400 yards. It is a snake style draft format, so the player with the last pick in the round will select first in the following round, so on and so forth. We do not use a tight end position. Instead, he have 2 running back starters, 2 wide receiver slots and 2 flex positions that you can play RB, WR or TE’s. We could not keep anyone selected in the first three rounds of last year’s draft, so the first three rounds should be close to a normal fantasy football league draft.
Owners:
#1 overall pick – Cowboy
#2 overall pick – Andrew
#3 overall pick – Jeff
#4 overall pick – Tim
#5 overall pick – Tony
#6 overall pick – Adam
#7 overall pick – Lucas
#8 overall pick – Ryan S.
#9 overall pick – Erik
#10 overall pick – Corey
#11 overall pick – Ryan B.
#12 overall pick – Billy
Mock Draft Round 1:
1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Ray Rice
4) LeSean McCoy
5) Chris Johnson
6) Andre Johnson
7) Drew Brees
Jamaal Charles
9) Tom Brady
10) Maurice Jones-Drew
11) Michael Turner
12) Steven Jackson
Round Overview: The first round went pretty much according to plan. The first overall selection in the draft by Cowboy of Aaron Rodgers is questionable. However, who am I to question a Super Bowl winning QB at the top spot? I’ve seen this method blow up in owners faces plenty of times when they use their first pick on a QB, however in a keeper league you have a little more freedom to do different things. LeSean McCoy at #4 was a steal, and that is saying a lot about the Eagles back, considering only three players were drafted above him. I took Chris Johnson on the eve of his re-signing. The move looks good now, however his injury risk has skyrocketed since he hasn’t played a single game in the pre-season before next week’s regular season schedule opens up. Regardless, for a guy who was the average #1 overall pick in most drafts last season, I feel like I paid under value for him at #5 overall. The player that slipped the most in this round was Jamaal Charles. A guy who averages 6.4 yards per carry over an entire season and catches mass passes out of the backfield shouldn’t make it out of the top 5 picks in most PPR league drafts. Charles will pay huge dividends for Ryan and many owners alike in 2011. Michael Turner and Steven Jackson both have question marks heading into the season. However, since this is a PPR league Turner drops a bit because he isn’t a receiving option in the Falcons offense. Jackson has had the most touches of anyone in football over the past five seasons. The workload may catch up with him this year, but our 2010 league champ doesn’t agree and snagged him at #12 overall.
Mock Draft Round 2:
13) Calvin Johnson
14) Phillip Rivers
15) Larry Fitzgerald
16) Chad Ochocinco
17) Greg Jennings
18) Reggie Wayne
19) Knowshon Moreno
20) DeSean Jackson
21) Rashard Mendenhall
22) Frank Gore
23) Miles Austin
24) Dallas Clark
Round Overview: What more can I say for Phil Rivers that already hasn’t been said? He is so consistent and steady. I love him this season. Especially, when he is the third, fourth and sometimes the fifth quarterback off the board. Our defending league champ Billy snagged Megatron after grabbing Steven Jackson, so add those two to his keepers and he is now in line for a repeat of his 2010 title. Larry Fitzgerald is the best wide receiver in the game, so getting him anywhere past the first round is a steal with great value. Chad Ochocinco was overpaid for in this round, however I can completely understand why. We all know how Randy Moss’ first season with Tom Brady and Pats went, so why not Chad? I am very high on Ocho this season, but not ahead of such emerging stars in the league at the WR position like Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson and Miles Austin. Knowshon Moreno is one of my favorite picks in this round and I may have very well taken him if he was still on the board and my guy was off it when it was my turn. However, my boy DeSean was on the draft board so I couldn’t resist. DeSean is not the greatest receiver for a PPR league because he is a deep threat, instead of a possession receiver. He is hit or miss some weeks, but boy do I want him on those weeks he hits. He can completely change a fantasy week in one or two plays with Mike Vick at the helm. That is why I went above and beyond to draft him with the 20th overall pick. Team him up with my keeper Hakeem Nicks and I have quite the nice NFC East duo. Frank Gore I feel is the better version of Ronnie Brown. Gore will give you great numbers…when he is on the field…and that is not very often. I have gotten to the point where I won’t even look his way in drafts anymore unless he slips to the 4th or 5th round. Dallas Clark with the last pick of the second round is overpaying, especially since we have no tight end position (just two flex spots where tight ends are eligible to play). Regardless, on most years Clark is as good as most top flight receivers. This year though, I just don’t trust Payton Manning after the off-season drama and surgery. I would steer clear of the Colts this season. Check out my next article for rounds 3 & 4 to be reviewed…
Myself and my co-workers have a yearly fantasy football keeper league and we just had our draft this past week that I will be breaking down in the second of my five-piece mock draft series. Keep in mind, when I list an owner not having a pick in a certain round, it simply just means that pick was used on a keeper and they have elected to forfeit their pick in the current round for the 2011 season. We each had an opportunity to keep up to four players, but some owners chose to keep less. Either way, this draft will give you a great indication of where players are being selected in a keeper league format. In most instances in a keeper league, you must over value and consequently over draft some players due to the lack of depth from the player pool. For example, Jason Witten is on average being draft between rounds 4-6 in normal drafts. However, in a keeper league with a more shallow player pool available, Witten is being taken anywhere from rounds 2-4. Keep that in mind when evaluating our mock draft. It is a standard league scoring PPR (point per reception) format with bonuses for 150+ yard games rushing or receiving. Quarterbacks also get a five point bonus for throwing over 400 yards. It is a snake style draft format, so the player with the last pick in the round will select first in the following round, so on and so forth. We do not use a tight end position. Instead, he have 2 running back starters, 2 wide receiver slots and 2 flex positions that you can play RB, WR or TE’s. We could not keep anyone selected in the first three rounds of last year’s draft, so the first three rounds should be close to a normal fantasy football league draft.
Owners:
#1 overall pick – Cowboy
#2 overall pick – Andrew
#3 overall pick – Jeff
#4 overall pick – Tim
#5 overall pick – Tony
#6 overall pick – Adam
#7 overall pick – Lucas
#8 overall pick – Ryan S.
#9 overall pick – Erik
#10 overall pick – Corey
#11 overall pick – Ryan B.
#12 overall pick – Billy
Mock Draft Round 3:
25) Cedric Benson
26) Peyton Manning
27) Brandon Marshall
28) Marques Colston
29) Ryan Matthews
30) Shonn Greene
31) DeAngelo Williams
32) Jason Witten
33) Julio Jones
34) Anquan Boldin
35) Joseph Addai
36) Beanie Wells
Round Overview: You can clearly see that the running back position is starting to dwindle, and a lot of the backs left on the board are risks. Cedric Benson is the first pick of the round, followed by Peyton Manning. I don’t trust either of these men. Benson is in a horrible offensive situation in Cinci where he will be the focal point of every match-up this season. I do not trust Manning, as I have said in all my column’s, at all this season. His neck surgery causes me some questions and I am not quite sure he will be the same Peyton Manning as usual…but then again, he is Peyton and could prove me completely wrong. I reached big time for Ryan Matthews with the fifth pick of the round, however as I said after Benson it is a lot of unproven backs. With Matthews, his upside is great. He had 222 yards rushing in his final two games of the 2010 season, giving owners hope he could emerge finally in his sophomore season. Here come the rest of the risky RB picks with Shonn Greene, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai and Beanie Wells. All can be considered sleepers this season, considering their individual situations. However, each pick comes with great risk taken so early in a draft where teams must secure the best talent available on the board. I love the Jason Witten pick in this draft considering his huge 2010 stats. He is an elite receiver at an even more elite tight end position. Julio Jones I love. However, with this being a keeper league and the owners not allowed to keep anyone until the fourth round, this can be considered a waisted pick. Julio will no doubt make a huge dent in the Atlanta offense this season, but it is his future value that makes him such a lustful keeper pick. As a regular player who will return to the player pool next season, Jones is an above average receiver for the 2011 season at best.
Mock Draft Round 4:
37) Fred Jackson
38) Santana Moss
39) Tony Romo
40) No Pick (Jahvid Best, keeper)
41) Daniel Thomas
42) No Pick (Matt Forte, keeper)
43) Ryan Grant
44) Jermichael Finley
45) No Pick (Wes Welker, keeper)
46) No Pick (Roddy White, keeper)
47) No Pick (Felix Jones, keeper)
48) No Pick (Tim Hightower, keeper)
Round Overview: I love the Tony Romo pick here in the 4th round with the 39th overall pick. Considering how many quarterback’s have already been taken, Romo is slightly undervalued in this position. The Cowboys offense will be out of control this season, any Dallas offensive player is a good pick in most situations. Daniel Thomas is a bit of a reach here, but I can understand Ryan’s justification with the selection. Do you trust Reggie Bush? I don’t and neither do Dolphin fans. Thomas is a big, 230-pound rookie back out of Kansas State University. He is ready to handle the load, but the question is how much of the workload will he receive? The Miami offense is so anemic, it worries me that Thomas may be putting up Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams-type numbers. Jermichael Finley may be the steal of this round. If he can prove to be a healthy body this season, there is no question he is the second option in one of the best offenses in all of football. It doesn’t hurt him either that he has Aaron Rodgers throwing his passes either. Check out my next article for rounds 5 & 6 to be reviewed…
