Handicapping The Peyton Manning Free Agency Sweepstakes

Published: 7^th Mar 12 1:57 pm

by danflaherty
danflaherty

RANT It!

Matt Stamey-US PRESSWIRE

The NFL world now knows what’s been tacitly assumed for a few months now, and it’s that quarterback Peyton Manning will not be a member of the Indianapolis Colts. With the announcement of his release, we also know something else–it’s only about money and attractiveness to the quarterback that matters when it comes to his 2012 whereabouts. No longer is about Indianapolis keeping his rights and trading him. Where does he land?

Like almost anything else in the sports world, you can put your money where your mouth is in Las Vegas on this subject, and the Chiefs are slotted as an 11-2 choice to be Manning’s destination. I’ve already articulated right here the reasons why I think Kansas City would be attractive to him, and the fact it’s only money that’s necessary to get him, should make the future Hall of Fame quarterback equally attractive to cap-light Kansas City. Here’s the rundown on the other contenders, according the folks on the Strip…

Miami (2-1): I just don’t see the Dolphins as being the favorites the rest of the world considers them to be. Unless Peyton has some desire to make a LeBron-style announcement about “taking his talents to South Beach”, the Dolphins have no offensive line and break in a new head coach. How does this make them a better choice than KC?

Arizona (7-2): I’d put Arizona in about the same boat as Miami, although with Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, the Cardinals might be an even better fit than Miami. Even so, can you really see Bill Bidwell’s front office winning an open-market battle like this?

NY Jets (6-1): While I don’t think the Jets are the destination point–are there two people who approach things more differently than Peyton and New York Jets’ coach Rex Ryan?– 6-1 odds looks long. It wouldn’t be a bad bet at that price.

Washington (6-1): Yeah, right. If it was a trade situation, the ‘Skins made sense. Who voluntarily goes and plays for Daniel Snyder when other bidders are out there?

Seattle (8-1): Interesting possibility, given Seattle’s good defense and lack of stability at quarterback. But the odds look about right.

Houston (10-1): No way. While my 2012 NFL Mock Draft had the Texans taking quarterback Brock Osweiler, that was due more to the dynamics of how I saw the draft unfolding. The Texans are not going to throw Matt Schaub under the bus to this extreme–at least not at the kind of money it would cost to bring a bus driver like Peyton in.

San Francisco (15-1): This is another team that while I don’t see him landing there, given Alex Smith’s improvement, it makes more sense than 15-1 is giving it credit for.

Denver (20-1): Repeat the above sentence, just substitute Tim Tebow for Alex Smith and 20-1 for 15-1.

Tennessee (25-1): This is the longshot I like. Peyton played his college ball at Tennessee, so he’d be coming home. And an AFC South opponent gives him a chance for some revenge on an owner that he doesn’t seem to particularly like. Think that’s not a factor? Ask Brett Favre.

Rest Of The Field (7-2): While a mystery team is a good possibility here, kind of like the Phillies sneaking in and winning the Cliff Lee sweepstakes in baseball’s offseason of 2010, I think the odds are longer than 7-2 gives it credit for.

Peyton Retires (12-1): Taken literally, this bet requires that Peyton not throw a pass. I just can’t see it. I can see his comeback coming up short and maybe him walking away midseason if his body gives out. But he’s going to try as long as there’s a snowball’s chance. The odds are about right.

The bottom line in all this? If I happen to be in Las Vegas and am sitting in the lounge at the sportsbook, watching odds go by the board and have fifty bucks to burn, I’m throwing $40 on Kansas City at 11-2 with $10 pulled out on the Tennessee longshot just in case.