Will Adrian Peterson Ever Be the Same? History Says No
It’s certainly a fair question, will Adrian Peterson ever be the same? Coming off a double tear in his knee, what realistic expectations should Vikings fans have for him in 2012? AP is determined to get back to full strength by week 1, and he actually thinks he will be better than before. Better? I think that’s a little far-fetched, but there is evidence that supports AP, and then there’s other evidence that says, not so much.
If anybody can get better, it’s Peterson, however in 2012, I expect his numbers to decrease. First off, there is no way he can be 100% by week 1. I think he will play, but he’ll only be 8 months out from surgery. Sports medicine is better than ever, but the human body can only recuperate so fast. Even if Peterson plays, he’s not going to get his normal amount of carries, and that alone will hold his numbers down. You’d have to think that the first 3-4 games, he will be on a carry count.
So what does history say about all of this? There have been numerous running backs with ACL tears over the years, and most of them got back on the field. Let’s take a look at numbers from some notable running backs in the years before, and after major knee surgery:
Edgerrin James – Rushing Yards in 2000: 1709 | Rushing Yards in 2002: 989
Jamal Lewis - Rushing Yards in 2000: 1364 | Rushing Yards in 2002: 1327
LaMont Jordan – Rushing Yards in 2005: 1025 | Rushing Yards in 2007: 549
Ronnie Brown - Rushing Yards in 2006: 1008 | Rushing Yards in 2008: 946
Deuce McAllister - Rushing Yards in 2006: 1057 | Rushing Yards in 2008: 418
Cadillac Williams - Rushing Yards in 2006: 798 | Rushing Yards in 2008 : 233
As you can see, some guys get close, but it’s very rare to get back to your prior numbers, let alone beat them. AP’s statement that he will be better, post-injury, is very admirable, but not realistic. If he is able to pull it off, I chalk it up to him being extremely mentally and physically tough, and to a tremendous competitive fire.
I want him to be the same, and what a story it would be if he did get better, I just don’t see it happening. History shows that it’s very challenging to come back from ACL surgery, let alone ACL and MCL surgery. At this time, if I’m placing a bet on whether Peterson’s numbers increase in 2012, I bet against it. I think the smart money is that he takes a step back, because you bet with your brain, not your heart.
If any running back can change history, its Adrian Peterson. Even with the injury, I still consider him the best running back in the NFL. He’s the best until someone shows me different, and with a great season in 2012, AP would really solidify himself as one of the all-time greats.
Follow Andrew Fisher on Twitter @the_realfish
Thanks to Footballdocs.com
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[...] History shows that Adrain Peterson will not be the same after his surgery. Also, the Viking has already stated that they will utilize Toby Gerhart more. [...]
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[...] Dwayne Bowe, automatically puts them in an spot to contend. The pieces are there on offense, with Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, and Kyle Rudolph, and with one more weapon, the Vikings can be a force to be [...]
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