Atlanta Braves Outlook for 2012: Catcher
With the Atlanta Braves offseason quite possibly completed, it is time to do my yearly outlook for the upcoming season for the Braves, position by position. I started this last year and it seemed to be a hit with fans and readers of the blog. The first installment will look at the Braves’ catchers. They have arguably the best offensive catcher in the game in Brian McCann. They also have the best tandem of catchers in McCann and David Ross. David Ross is a more than capable backup. In actuality, the Ross could be starting on many MLB teams today.
When you look at the Braves’ statistical production from their catchers in 2011 you can see how valuable Ross and McCann truly are. The Braves’ catchers hit .276 (5th), with a .354 OBP (2nd), .462 slugging (3rd), .816 OPS (4th), with 92 RBIs (3rd), 29 HR (1st), and 167 hits (3rd) last season. The rankings in parenthisis was the MLB rankings as a whole, not considering the NL rankings.
Advanced stats were equally kind for the Braves. Their production saw a wRC+ of 118 (4th), wOBA of .344 (4th) and an overall WAR of 5.0 (4th). The most surprising thing to me, was that the Arizona Diamondbacks had a better year than the Braves in the advanced stats. This was no doubt due to the struggles of Brian McCann after coming back from a strained oblique.
Overall McCann had a very productive 2011 season.
466 AB, 51 R, 126 H, 19 2B, 24 HR, 71 RBI, 57 BB, 89 K, .270/.351/.466/.817, and an OPS+ of 124.
What is remarkable is the fact that McCann ended up with only his 2nd lowest batting average of his career last season. From a statistical standpoint, he had a solid overall 2011. What is crazy is the pace that he was on before his injury. He was being talked about in some circles as a serious MVP candidate. This was rightly so. Look at his pre and post-All Star stats:
| Split | AB | R | H | 2B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | tOPS+ | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 294 | 36 | 91 | 15 | 15 | 50 | 34 | 47 | .310 | .381 | .514 | .894 | .325 | 119 |
| 2nd Half | 172 | 15 | 35 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 23 | 42 | .203 | .301 | .384 | .685 | .215 | 68 |
Generated 1/27/2012.
One other chart for you to look at is his monthly production. McCann hurt his oblique in an extra innings game at the end of July. Notice the drastic dropoff in August through the end of the season in October:
| Split | AB | R | H | 2B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | tOPS+ | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April/March | 93 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 20 | .301 | .363 | .376 | .739 | .366 | 84 |
| May | 92 | 10 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 11 | 13 | .304 | .371 | .554 | .926 | .312 | 125 |
| June | 79 | 13 | 27 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 12 | 9 | .342 | .435 | .671 | 1.106 | .306 | 168 |
| July | 69 | 14 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 15 | .275 | .324 | .464 | .788 | .300 | 92 |
| August | 48 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 10 | .146 | .241 | .417 | .657 | .088 | 58 |
| Sept/Oct | 85 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 22 | .200 | .320 | .306 | .626 | .246 | 57 |
Generated 1/27/2012.
There is no wonder that the Braves struggled so mightily down the stretch. McCann is their most consistent hitter. He was not the same hitter at all. What is fascinating is the fact that his numbers resembled his career numbers overall, even though he was on such a torrid pace.
As for Ross, he had a solid year as well. Statistically, it was his worst season since signing with the Braves before the 2009 season. Look at his 3 year stats for the Braves:
2009 – 128 AB, 18 R, 35 H, 9 2B, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 21 BB, 39 K, .273/.380/.508/.888 and an OPS+ of 133.
2010 – 121 AB, 15 R, 35 H, 13 2B, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 20 BB, 28 K, .289/.392/.479/.871 and an OPS+ of 136.
2011 – 152 AB, 14 R, 40 H, 7 2B, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 16 BB, 51 K, .263/.333/.428/.761 and an OPS+ of 109.
Ross had a WAR of 1.3 in 52 games. His wRC+ was at 110 and he had a wOBA of .332. Overall, his career statistics are off the charts in Atlanta. In his 9 year MLB career (dating to 2002), Ross had never hit higher than .258 until he came to Atlanta. He posted the highest OBP of his career in 2009 and beat that in 2010. He has had consistent power, but has posted his 3rd and 4th best slugging % of his career in 2009 and 2010.
The picture of the Braves’ catching situation is very bright. They have the one of the game’s best catchers in Brian McCann. They have one of the game’s best backups in David Ross. These two form a formidable punch from behind the plate. Ross has the better arm and defense. McCann has the better bat.
Looking ahead to the upcoming season, I would expect McCann to rebound from a poor end to his 2011. Bill James has projected McCann to put up the following next season: .276/.360/.484 with 24 HR and 88 RBIs. If he stays healthy, there is no reason to think he cannot meet this projection, if not beat it.
James’ projection of Ross, on the other hand, is not as optimistic. He has Ross slated to hit .232/.321/.405 with 11 HR, 30 R and 40 RBIs. What is baffling to me is that he has Ross appearing in 91 games in 2012. Ross has appeared in no more than 54 games since arriving in Atlanta. Further his projections of 30 runs scored is more than double what he has scored the past two season combined. The average, OBP and slugging % is much closer to his career marks than what we have been accustomed to in Atlanta, though. I still don’t think he will drop off that much. I would expect a season close to what he put up in 2011.
The Braves should still have one of the most productive catching team in the MLB this season. They will be relied upon to help mentor the young and talented rotation. They will also be one of the main offensive catalysts for the team.
Note: There were some technical issues with the baseball reference tables for McCann’s and Ross’ previous year’s statistics.
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There is a glitch in the baseball reference table sharing for some reason. It worked fine on two of the tables, but McCann’s 2011 and Ross’ 2011 stats are all messed up. I am going to just type in the line, rather than use the chart there.
I have done the training, but like I said, there is a system glitch on their end with the codes for the tables.
Capitol Avenue Club doesn’t use baseball reference, I don’t believe. You sure know a lot about how to run my blog. Just sayin.