Players I Hate for 2010: Chris Johnson…?


September 9, 2010 by Scott Rogers  
Filed under Featured, Football

(This is the fifth and final edition of this series of players I dislike. Disagree with any of these picks? Let me know in the comment section below.)

Is there anything worse than walking away with a bad taste in your mouth?

I don’t think so, and unfortunately with this final edition of this column, that’s exactly what I intend to give you, intrepid reader.

I saved the best for last, my No. 1 most hated football player (for fantasy purposes). Can I get a drum roll or some other cliché term used to describe an anticlimactic unveiling? Fine, here it goes…

I hate Chris Johnson.

Woo, that’s a relief. I’ve had to hold my tongue (or typing fingers) for longer than I would like, but now it feels good to get this off my chest. I imagine that you are probably wondering why I dislike a running back that is an almost consensus pick in the fantasy community as the number one player off the board, a RB who rushed for 2,000 yards last season while also setting a new record for total yards in a season.

I will admit it, Johnson was an absolute beast. I expect him to remain beastly this year as well, just not to the same extent. I have already gone on record stating that with the injury to Sidney Rice I would take Adrian Peterson first overall, a change which goes against my original Top 200 rankings. I just believe that if you have the top pick in your draft, you’re going to select the player whom you believe will end up as the single best player in fantasy football this upcoming season. The top pick is not about rewarding the best player from last year. I expect Johnson to be in the top five of RBs this upcoming season, but I greatly doubt that he will recreate his numbers from last season.

Let’s Look at the Trends

For those that have read other articles detailing the fall off of 2,000 yard RBs in the following season, this next part may be a bit redundant. Still, it needs to be said as the stats simply speak for themselves.

OJ Simpson: In the 1973 season as a member of the Buffalo Bills, Simpson put up by far the most impressive 2,000 yard season in NFL history. He’s the only RB to break this yardage mark in a 14 game season for one, carrying the ball 332 times for 2,003 yards, 12 TDs and a ridiculous 6 yards per carry. There appeared to be nothing which could slow OJ down (insert joke about his criminal future) until the 1974 season rolled around. Simpson, in the same amount of games as the previous season, carried the ball 270 times for only 1,125 yards and a measly 3 TDs. He basically fell off a cliff, though he would bounce back with 1,800 yards rushing the next season. In neither season did the Bills make the playoffs, by the way.

Eric Dickerson: Dickerson holds the record for most rushing yards in a season, rushing for 2,105 yards on 379 carries with a 5.6 YPC and 14 TDs in 1984. The next season, he only played in 14 games (more than likely a result of the 759 carries he endured in his first two seasons) but his numbers were still very far down, carrying the ball 292 times for 1,234 yards and 12 TDs on a 4.2 YPC. He’s the poster boy for not overusing your RB. In Dickerson’s 2,000 yard season, the Rams made the playoffs, but were instantly defeated in the Wild Card round of games.

Barry Sanders: He’s the one RB who did not experience a terribly down year after his career best. In 1997, the second to last year of his career, Sanders rushed for 2,053 yards on 335 carries, averaging a sick 6.1 YPC while scoring 11 TDs. In the 1998 season, Sanders rushed for 1,491 yards on 343 carries (that’s right, MORE touches than his 2K season) with a 4.3 YPC and only 4 TDs. So though Sanders did not experience as huge of a drop off as others, his stats still fell considerably. The Lions also lost in the Wild Card round of playoff games in Sanders’ best season as well.

Terrell Davis: After his 2,000 yard season, Davis was never the same. In fact, he never came close to even 1,000 yards again. In 1998, his best year, Davis rushed for 2,008 yards on 392 carries, scoring 21 TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC. The following season, he managed to only play in four games and his stats suffered. Davis managed only 211 yards on 67 carries for 2 TDs and a miniscule 3.1 YPC. Just like Dickerson, Davis fell victim to just too many carries, more than his body could take. Unlike all the other backs on this list, Davis managed to win the Super Bowl in his best season, however.

Jamal Lewis: The last man to rush for 2,000 yards, at least before Johnson, Lewis is another example of what I will at this point deem, “The Curse of 2,000.” In 2003, Lewis rushed for 2,066 yards on 387 carries for 14 TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC. The year after, Lewis played in only 12 games, finishing his season with 235 carries for 1,006 yards, 7 TDs and 4.3 YPC. The Ravens won their division in 2003, while the next season they didn’t make the playoffs.

What Does This Tell Us?

Clearly the overall lesson to take from the past history of 2,000 yard backs is that achieving that milestone is hard, so hard that it demands a level of excellence and takes a physical toll on those that achieve it which seriously affects the rest of their careers. I mean, only six guys in the entire history of the NFL have done it before, and outside of Davis, none have parlayed their yards into a Vince Lombardi trophy.

This leads into my main argument for why Johnson will not live up to his or his owner’s expectations this season; the Titans simply figure to be a better team. Last year, in what largely became a lost season after a 0-6 start, the Titans leaned heavily on Johnson presumably in order to add some significance to their season. I expect that Titans to be a better passing team this year; I’m a fan of their young WRs and of Vince Young’s potential growth. Running dominated attacks in the NFL don’t win SBs anymore either, and you better believe Jeff Fisher knows this.

Chris Johnson wont get as many garbage yards or attempts as he did last year. His team will be better and I doubt that the Titans will gear all their efforts towards getting him 2,000 yards; they’ll be more preoccupied with trying to win games this season. He is of course a top five–or even top two pick–but if you’re expecting a repeat of last season’s numbers, you’re likely to be disappointed. Expect a return to his rookie season numbers, which if you didn’t notice, were still very good. Johnson is talented, but he had his year. It’s time for someone else (I believe Peterson) to step up and claim the mantle of best fantasy player.

There you have it, the conclusion of my Players I Hate series. I hope you found these articles informative and entertaining. Now let’s see how my predictions play out throughout the season, continue to check back as I document how right (or wrong) I am while providing further indispensable fantasy advice.

Check out Players I Love: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV and Part V. And Players I Hate: Part I, Part II, Part III and Part IV.

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