Undervalued Arms on Draft Day

Published: 9^th Feb 12 12:03 pm

by aaronprice
aaronprice

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With values like this deep in the draft there is no reason to draft a pitcher before the fifth round. The skills to look for when evaluating pitchers is an above average K rate, below average walk rate, and a good ground ball percentage. To establish the value of these pitchers, let’s first look at the League Average (LA) for K rate (7.13/9), walk rate (3.11/9) and ground ball percentage (44.4%). Here are some pitchers that should produce above average rates in the listed categories, and could be an anchor on your staff for 2012 and beyond.

Madison Bumgarner ADP 74.92

During 2011, Bumgarner posted 8.40K’s/9, 2.02BB/9, and a GB% of 46%. He plays on a good team and in a pitchers paradise. Bumgarner could be the break out pitcher of the season a la Clayton Kershaw of 2011. He may be the #3 on the Giants staff, but he will perform as a #1 on a fantasy staff

Matt Moore ADP 100.63

Moore dazzled during his regular season 9.1 inning cup of coffee and in the playoffs last year. In his 9 innings he whiffed 15 batters for a 14.46K/9 K rate, to go along with 2.89BB/9 and a 42.9% GB rate. His minor league K rate is 12.73K/9 and that should translate to around 10K’s/9 in the majors. This will be the last time Moore will be underrated on draft day. He’s a virtual lock for 200K’s in 2012 and should have a league average rate for BB/9 and GB%.

Brandon Beachy ADP 116.44

Well the scouts really missed the boat on Beachy as he came out of nowhere to lead all SP in K rate had he had enough innings to qualify (10.74K/9 in 141.2 IP). In 2011, he kept his walk rate to 2.92BB/9 to go with a GB% of 33.8%. He is a fly ball pitcher and is prone to the long ball (9.8% HR/FB); however, he should still put up quality numbers in 2012 and be a great fantasy #2 starter. The only question he has left to answer is durability.

John Danks ADP 193.02

Most people would say Danks’ 2011 was a step back in the development curve. Despite his 8-12 record, Danks posted quality peripheral number in 2011. 7.13K/9, 2.43BB/9 and 43.8% are all right around league average. The 4.33 ERA last year was largely the result of a high BABIP (.313). However, it should regress closer to his career BABIP of .290 in 2012, resulting in a lower ERA. It’s hard to believe you could find a #2 quality starter in the 16^th round, but thats where Danks is currently being selected.

Jonathon Niese ADP 221.71

Out of this list of players, Niese suppressed value baffles be the most. Maybe it is because the state of the Mets franchise that he’s getting over looked? Savvy drafters should look past the dysfunctional Mets and look for opportunities deep in the draft. Niese posted rates of 7.89K/9, 2.52BB/9, and a GB of 51.5%. Bottom line, he’s missing bats at an above average rate, and when the batters do make contact over half the hits are on the ground. That is a recipe for success. While his Win Loss record may be affected be the Mets current state, his underline numbers suggest solid #2 production in 2012.

There are many more option out there to be found. Do your research; look for pitchers that miss bats at an above average rate, keep the walks in check, and induce ground balls and you will always get solid production from your rotation.

Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman

All ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com

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