Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
No matter how good Alfred Morris has been during his first two seasons in the NFL, it seems that the fantasy community isn’t all that impressed. When they see Morris’ name on the board, instead of jumping at the chance to grab him, owners seem so unenthusiastic to grab the Redskins back. I mean, who would want 1,500 yards and 8-10 touchdowns, right? Morris has finished as a top-15 back in each of his first two seasons, including a surprising 5th overall finish during his rookie year.
So what does 2014 have in store for “The Butler?”
Positives
Morris is an absolute workhorse, averaging 305.5 carries during his first two seasons. He is an every down back who can absorb plenty punishment and score plenty of touchdowns from up close. He’s also very durable, showing no significant injury history during his time in college, and hasn’t missed a game in his professional career. Morris is also a very consistent fantasy producer, finishing as a top-12 back 81.3 percent of the time in 2012 and just under 70 percent of the time last season. Featured backs are hard to come by nowadays, and Morris is just that.
Negatives
Many people are bumping Morris down in their ranks because of the coaching change in Washington, not because of the player. It’s well warranted, as both run-heavy Shanahans are gone and pass-happy Jay Gruden is calling the shots. During his time in Cincinnati, Gruden had been incorporating a two-running back attack, and last year was no different. Giovani Bernard saw 616 snaps, while BenJarvus Green-Ellis saw a healthy 464. And if Washington sees an uptick in passing, Morris’ value could take a hit, as he isn’t much of a pass-catcher, and last year, Roy Helu was a factor on passing downs, seeing 37.1 snaps per game, compared to Alf’s 37.9.
The Redskins defense (or lack there of) could also be an issue. Pat Thorman of PFF did a great job highlighting how Morris’ touches suffered last season. He states that in 2012, when Washington made the playoffs, they held a lead 37.9 percent of the time, but last year, when their defense was atrocious, they held a lead an ugly 10.4 percent of the time. Obviously, Morris isn’t always in there on passing downs, so if they keep giving up tons of points, Morris could see a decrease in volume.
Final Verdict
Do I think Morris is still a top-12 fantasy back? Yes, yes I do. You don’t just go away from a guy who has been arguably your best overall player the last two seasons. He’s been one of the best backs in football since entering the league, averaging 4.7 yards per clip. However, I would strongly consider handcuffing him with Helu and lower him on your board a bit in PPR formats.
Bye Week: 10
Projected Round: 2nd
Auction Value: $33 (via ESPN)
Adam Pfeifer is a featured fantasy sports columnist for Rant Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @aPfeiferRS.
