The Jacksonville Jaguars will probably finish 2013 with the No. 1 pick. The defense probably won’t rebound in a way that keeps them out of major deficits in most weeks. Still, a threat in the running and passing game like Maurice Jones-Drew is hard to ignore in the first couple rounds of fantasy drafts.
(The following analysis is based on FantasyPros.com aggregate average draft position drawn from major websites. The first number in parenthesis is ADP overall in a non-PPR format; the second is ADP by position. I am not saying these players will be terrible or amazing, just that I see them significantly outperforming or underperforming their fantasy value at the current ADP.)
Underrated: Maurice Jones-Drew (25, 15), Jacksonville Jaguars (Sub-404/unranked, 32)
MoJo stumbled through his first truly injury-marred year in 2012 and also players for the Jaguars, so those two are rather huge factors in making him the forgotten man. I would still have trouble taking Steven Jackson or Matt Forte ahead of him with neither putting together any remotely recent great fantasy years. MJD had top-five points-per-game campaigns in 2010 and 2011, is healthy and is not holding out his year. I very much doubt the Jags defense will finish dead-last given Gus Bradley‘s brilliant run as coordinator over the past season and the heavy focus on defensive investment this offseason.
Overrated: Justin Blackmon (129, 47), Cecil Shorts (75, 28)
Blaine Gabbert just might not to be the most laughable top-ten pick in the league this year, but his 13-for-16 Week 2 preseason performance still doesn’t get me on board with this passing offense. I believe Short is a decent fantasy receiver and Blackmon — despite troubles that get him suspended — obviously comes with high-first round talent, and that still has me avoiding any Jags at starting receiver on my fantasy roster.