New York Mets: Plugging the Holes

New York Mets: Fixing the Holes

The New York Mets were projected by Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system to win 80 games, and after many years of losing, even reaching that number is incredibly important for the Mets going forward: The team saw an average of 38,000 fans per game in attendance during the opening season of Citifield, and the number has shrunk to 25,000 this year.

If the team doesn’t trend upward and soon, it will see its long-term revenue prospects plummet. Even a .500 or so finish shows that the team is trending upward, and this would be enough to justify a payroll increase to the ownership in all likelihood. Additionally, not spending as a New York team is terrible for the Mets’ brand equity.

In short: Expect the Mets to be buyers this year, but you have to give to get in this world. So who do they trade? The Mets do have some prospect depth, but they may even need to part with big league names if they want to reel in a long-term piece.

If your name isn't David Wright or Matt Harvey, you're probably an expendable player on the New York Mets. Players such as Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell have been great contributors to the team so far, but they are still as likely as anyone else to be moved.

As a second baseman with Wilmer Flores breathing down his neck, Murphy's relative value is less than that of a David Wright, who brings brand equity to the team and has no viable replacement. Parnell has been as good as any closer in the game with an ERA lower than that of Matt Harvey, but as a closer on a team expected to do little more than win 80 games (if that), he may find himself somewhere else, and possibly soon.

But where are the Mets' biggest needs? Outside of the above mentioned players, only John Buckhas performed significantly above average thus far, so there are plenty of areas for improvement. Everybody knew the outfield would be a weakness going into the season, and so far, predictions have proved true, with the team in the bottom of the league in both outfield defense and offensive production.

Although the infield was supposed to be the team’s offensive strength, Ike Davis has made our worst fears as fans come true, and Ruben Tejada has been as unimpressive as ever. The team could find itself with a multitude of unanticipated wants this summer.

Here’s who the Mets could acquire this summer to help the team’s long and short term chances of winning.

Outfielder: Alex Rios

Odds are, Chicago White Sox outfielder Alex Rios is at the top of a Mets wish list that doesn't include Giancarlo Stanton or Carlos Gonzalez. The White Sox appear to be in a make-or-break period for their franchise, which has been consistently in the middle of the pack since their World Series appearance. Rios is under team control until after 2015, the year of his club option. Until the end of that contract, he's due to earn $12.5 million a year plus a $1 million buyout.

The contract wouldn't be an issue for the Mets. The team is desperate for outfield help and Rios has a heck of track record. The cost of the contract plus the cost in talent the team would need to give up could be what drives a wedge between the White Sox and the Mets. The White Sox know Rios is good and will demand a pretty solid return in exchange for him. In all likelihood, the Sox, who have a void at second base, will request Daniel Murphy or Wilmer Flores from the Mets to start, and could ask for more.

If the Mets can acquire Rios for Flores and Rafael Montero, it's almost a no-brainer for New York. Rios would be a very valuable core addition at a position that the Mets badly need and have no immediate help at, while Montero and Flores come from areas of relative depth. If a deal can't be reached, there is no real option as attractive as Rios, but there are some less exciting but still useful possibilities.

Outfielder: Jonny Gomes

Jonny Gomes was meant to be brought in a big bat to wake the Boston Red Sox up after a dismal 2012 season. So far, Gomes has failed to deliver offensively with a replacement-level performance. Gomes' contract is no albatross at two years and $10 million, but the performances of Daniel Nava and David Ortiz have made Gomes quite superfluous.

Gomes' track record says he can hit, and his bat would probably be a nice piece to add to a struggling outfield and bench. His contract is an issue, but if the Red Sox can eat a bit, his cost in a trade is likely very small. Here's a bonus: he's known to be a remarkable clubhouse leader, which may be a bit silly to say at times, but guys like this are important to have on a fringy ballclub. He's worth consideration.

Outfielder: Charlie Blackmon

The Colorado Rockies have a very deep depth chart offensively and because of this, Charlie Blackmon has struggled to see playing time. Still, Blackmon posted a wOBA of .388 in 2012, and with Michael Cuddyer down with an injury, Blackmon's .423 wOBA so far this season has certainly forced the Rockies to give him some playing time at the big league level.

Blackmon will be 27 this year and his major league strikeout and walk rates do not even remotely resemble his minor league numbers, so he may not be worth all that much in a trade to the Mets, but if he can be had upon Cuddyer's return, he may be a good buy-low option with a big potential payoff.

Starting Pitcher: Jake Arrieta

Jake Arrieta has had a very turbulent career in professional baseball so far, but it seems as though all he needs is a break at this point. Drafted as a college arm out of Texas Christian University, Arrieta was expected to blow away lower level competition with his hard fastball and solid breaking ball, but his prospect status took a bit of a dive as he struggled with his command in AAA.

Since making his major league debut, Arrieta has managed to limit walks for the most part, and has kept strikeouts at a pretty high clip. His 2012 season was especially impressive as far as peripherals go, posting a 3.65 xFIP. He has been an oft-forgotten member of a crowded Baltimore Orioles pitching staff, struggling to get time and a victim of sharp platoon splits due to the hitter-friendly environment in Baltimore (the difference between his home and road ERA in 2012 was a full two points).

As the Orioles struggle to find a role for the 27-year-old with a mid-90s fastball, his value in a trade may have hit an all-time low, leaving him vulnerable to a deal if the Mets can provide the proper piece. The problem here lies in the fact that the Orioles want a second baseman, and Arrieta alone may not warrant the trading of Murphy, who has been better at a scarce position, or Flores, who is much young and has many more years of team control. Perhaps the Orioles could add Jonathan Schoop, but this may be wishful thinking.

Starting/Relief Pitcher: Erasmo Ramirez

Right-hander Erasmo Ramirez played the role of every-man in the Seattle Mariners' pitching staff last season, posting a 3.55 FIP in 59 innings between the rotation and bullpen. Ramirez isn't the most heralded of Mariners youngsters, but the 23-year-old has legitimate stuff that can play in both a big league rotation and bullpen.

Ramirez is truly a good pitcher due to his command: he walked just five percent of batters last year, striking out 20 percent. He features a standard repertoire of fastball, curveball, slider and changeup with above-average velocity and a very dominant changeup. He's young, controllable, and can play in multiple roles, an important trait for the Mets' pitching staff that lacks depth.

The Mariners understand how good Ramirez is. They may already have Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Brandon Maurer, but Ramirez can pitch with any of them. He may have a slight drop in value due to injury, but he will return soon and the Mariners will not give him up without getting something in return.

Utilityman: Dustin Ackley

It is no secret that Dustin Ackley has been a disappointment for the Mariners. Put at second base and expected to hit at a high level, Ackley has followed up his strong 2011 debut with ever-decreasing performance at the plate. So why would the Mets want a struggling second baseman with both Murphy and Flores?

Ackley is still widely regarded as a capable talent, and perhaps a change of scenery is all he needs. If given a viable replacement, the Mariners could be quick to move Ackley, and the Mets can afford to give him a shot a first base or the outfield. Perhaps he could be moved with Ramirez to the Mets for Wilmer Flores and a throw-in?