10 Questions Surrounding the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies won 102 games last season and led the major leagues in wins in both 2010 and 2011, but a sixth straight division title can’t be assumed. The Atlanta Braves have an extremely young and talented team that could easily be in the mix for an NL East crown. The Miami Marlins made significant offseason signings with Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, and Heath Bell joining the team, and the Washington Nationals get Stephen Strasburg get back and will have Bryce Harper coming up through the minor league ranks soon.
Four of the five teams in the NL East could easily win 85 games, and it may take 95 or more victories to win the division. The Phillies return a very talented team, but time is running out for a roster that is one of the more aged in the business. There are also injuries, contract issues, and other matters that will play a key role for the state of the 2012 Phillies.
1. How much will the Philadelphia Phillies miss Ryan Howard?
In short, a lot. Ryan Howard has his flaws – he strikes out too much, he can’t run the bases, his defense is poor, and he’s still subpar in hitting lefties. And yet he’s being paid $25 million per year because the Philadelphia Phillies have been able to pencil in 35-45 home runs and 120 RBIs from their mammoth slugger, and Howard provides immeasurable stability in the cleanup spot.
John Mayberry, Jr. can play first base, but the Phillies will likely use him more as a platoon with Juan Pierre and Laynce Nix in left field. Ty Wigginton can also play first base, and the Phillies signed the veteran Jim Thome to provide pinch-hit at-bats and play first base maybe once or twice per week.
The sooner Howard can return, the better. Mayberry has struggled when playing long-term. Thome is great as a Matt Stairs type of player off the bench, but not as a regular. Same with Wigginton. The problem with Howard is that when he does return, he will likely lack the power that has made him one of the game’s most fearsome power hitters in recent years. If he can hit 25 home runs this season in limited time, the Phillies will probably take that.
2. How much will the Philadelphia Phillies miss Chase Utley?
Chase Utley is a better player than Ryan Howard both offensively and defensively, and he plays a tougher position in the field. Utley has struggled with injuries as of late, which has led to substantial playing time for career backups like Wilson Valdez, Michael Martinez, and Pete Orr.
None of those players has come close to replicating the performance Utley gives on a regular basis. When he’s healthy, Utley is still arguably the best second baseman in the National League. He hit .438/.571/,688 in 21 plate appearances in the playoffs last October, proving he still can play with the best of them when he is feeling well. The problem with Utley is that his patellar tendinitis will never really go away, so he will need to be utilized sparingly when he does return, and the Phillies may even try him at first base for some time because it is an easier position on his knees.
Utley’s return is even more vital than Howard, considering he is a superior all-around player and his backups are weaker. If Utley misses more than a month or so, the Phillies will really be hurting.
3. Will Cole Hamels get a long-term deal before the offseason and if not, will it affect his performance?
I fully expect Cole Hamels to get a long-term deal from the Philadelphia Phillies before the season ends, and I fully expect Hamels to pitch as well in 2012 as he did in 2011.
Hamels is arguably the greatest homegrown starting pitcher in the history of a franchise that has struggled to develop arms. He has made two All-Star teams, owns an impressive 3.39 ERA and 3.74 strikeout to walk ratio, and has a World Series MVP award. He’s just 28 years old, a lefty, and he has very little injury history.
Hamels should get close to $150 million when he finally signs. I think the Phillies will extend Hamels sometime around the All-Star break in the tune of seven years, $145 million, and I think this will give the Phillies the best rotation in baseball for at least several more years.
4. Will Domonic Brown see major league action in 2012?
GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has already said Domonic Brown will spend the 2012 season with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Brown has struggled to develop into the promising left-handed hitting outfielder the Phillies think he will become, although he has also seen limited action in the major leagues in each of the past two seasons.
Brown needs to work on some key areas of his game – he can’t hit left-handed pitching well enough to warrant anything but a platoon spot in the major leagues, and he’s as bad defensively as the 39-year old Raul Ibanez was in left field in 2011.
Brown will probably get called up around the middle of the season if there’s an injury to one of the Phillies’ outfielders, but Amaro will definitely want Brown to have extended playing time as a minor league regular. It’s not fair to say 2012 is a make or break year for Brown, because he could still struggle in ’12 and come out strong in ’13. But with Shane Victorino hitting free agency after this season and Hunter Pence after 2013, you better bet the Phillies would like a sign that Brown is ready to handle the load as a starting outfielder.
5. Will Vance Worley show signs of a sophomore slump?
Vance Worley seemingly came out of nowhere in 2011 to post an 11-3 mark on the mound with a 3.01 ERA in 131.2 innings pitched, with the Philadelphia Phillies at one point winning 14 straight of his starts.
Worley is penciled in as the team’s fourth starter in 2012 behind Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. There are concerns among Phillies fans that Worley could be the next Kyle Kendrick or J.A. Happ – a young pitcher that enjoyed a promising rookie campaign but dropped off afterwards and never again was the same player.
Worley has a good two-seam fastball, and he’s aggressive on the mound. He benefited from statistics in 2011 that show his performance will likely level off in ’12 – a deceivingly good BABIP rate, a high walk rate, and a FIP that suggests he’s not as good as his ERA. I expect Worley to drop off in 2012, but I actually think it will be at an alarming rate. As much as I like the one they call The Vanimal, I’m not at all convinced Worley will duplicate his success in 2011 or come even close for that matter. I see numbers around a 9-9 mark with a 4.65 ERA, and it wouldn’t stun me to see the Phillies eventually put Worley on the DL for “arm soreness” or send him to the minor leagues to regain his form.
6. Will Antonio Bastardo be the pitcher he was in the first half of 2011 or the one that struggled down the stretch?
Antonio Bastardo was arguably the biggest surprise of the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies, even more so than Vance Worley. He pitched so well as a left-handed reliever that the team released J.C. Romero and felt comfortable enough going to the postseason with Bastardo as the only left-handed reliever on the roster.
The best part about Bastardo is that he’s in no way a LOOGY (lefty one-out guy); he can pitch equally well against both righties (.506 OPS) and lefties (.558 OPS). Bastardo posted a 6-1 mark to go with a 2.64 ERA for the season, and that earned run average hovered in the low 1.00s until he was roughed up in September.
In his final 4.2 innings on the mound – spanning eight appearances – Bastardo gave up nine hits and seven walks, for a 17.36 ERA, a .412 batting average allowed, and 1.352 OPS. There were reports that he may have been overworked, which could have been the case with Ryan Madson, Jose Contreras, and Brad Lidge all missing substantial time due to injury.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say I expect Bastardo to miss the majority of the 2012 season with injuries, but I think Joe Savery will surprise everyone and be a key left-handed reliever for the bullpen.
7. Which young players will step up for the Philadelphia Phillies?
The Philadelphia Phillies have just two prospects in the MLB top 100, and neither is higher than the A-ball level. That doesn’t mean they won’t get strong contributions from young players in 2012 though.
Freddy Galvis is slated to begin the season as the team’s Opening Day starting second baseman with Chase Utley battling through patellar tendinitis in his knees. Galvis is rumored to be already a Gold Glove caliber infielder with the leather, but it will depend on what he does with his bat as to whether he proves his value. I think Galvis will be a reasonably pleasant surprise with the bat – maybe a .265/.325/.400 statline in 250 plate appearances, numbers I would certainly take considering he has a .246 batting average and .321 slugging percentage at the minor league level.
I think both Phillippe Aumont and Justin De Fratus will play key parts of the bullpen in 2012. Jose Contreras is on the DL, and at 40 years old, I don’t see him coming back to pitch much this season. There will be plenty of opportunities for Aumont and De Fratus to shine, and I see them performing in similar roles as Antonio Bastardo and Michael Stutes did last year. I think Joe Savery will be a good left-handed reliever, and I see Michael Schwimer developing into a solid right-handed reliever, although maybe not this year.
8. Will Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee repeat their stellar 2011 seasons?
I see absolutely no reason to think Roy Halladay will do anything less than 18 wins and an ERA under 3.00. He is as consistent as it gets, he has an unbelievable work ethic, and he has a wide array of pitches that make him arguably the game’s best pitcher since Pedro Martinez. I predict Halladay wins his third Cy Young award, posting a 20-8 record with a 2.65 ERA in 240 innings.
Cliff Lee overachieved in 2011, posting an ERA (2.40), strikeout rate (9.2), and three times as many shutouts (6) as he has in any other season of his career. Lee has been alarmingly inconsistent for his whole career for a pitcher that has been as good as he has, and he was either hit-or-miss last year. It seemed Lee was just as likely to give up eight runs in three innings as he was to throw a three-hit, no-walk shutout with 12 strikeouts.
I see Lee posting very good, not great numbers, somewhere around 16-10 with a 3.55 ERA and 195 strikeouts in 210-220 innings pitched.
9. Will the Philadelphia Phillies trade Joe Blanton by the All-Star break?
I don’t see this happening if it hasn’t happened by now. The Philadelphia Phillies are overpaying Joe Blanton, and they know that, but they would likely only deal him if they have a top young prospect in Triple-A waiting to come up, and that isn’t the case right now.
Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels are a tremendous trio, and Vance Worley is locked in as the fourth starter, but there’s really no one else. Dontrelle Willis was released. No one from Triple-A is on the verge of making the team, although maybe there will be a surprise a la Worley from last year.
The Phillies would have to receive a strong offer from a contender desperately needing an innings eater – maybe a second baseman with a good bat or a quality reliever, and it’s doubtful that a team would give up a player like that just for Blanton entering the final several months of his three-year deal.
10. Will the Philadelphia Phillies be able to hold off the Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, and Washington Nationals?
The Philadelphia Phillies are good. They’re very good, in fact. But so are the Atlanta Braves. And the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals are not just sleeper contenders – they’re contenders.
I see the Phillies winning their sixth straight division title, although not by a wide margin. The Braves have a strong core of young pitchers, although some of them (Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran) may be several seasons away still from becoming key contributors. The Marlins made some major upgrades, but I don’t see Mark Buehrle (a pitcher that has always been slightly overrated) or Carlos Zambrano pitching up to the caliber of what the team expects from them. The Nationals have a pretty solid pitching staff with Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, and Edwin Jackson, but I think they have too tough of a division to win the NL East.
I’ll release official predictions tomorrow, but I have the Phillies at 96 wins and their sixth straight NL East title.
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