Analyzing the 70 point spread for the Florida State and Savannah State game

So you may have heard that the Florida State Seminoles are favoured by 70.5 points in their game against the Savannah State Tigers on Saturday.  The spread is the largest in the history of college football.  In most games the 70.5 points would be the over/under line, but on this occasion with the Seminoles being ranked 6th in the nation, and the Tigers having being blown out by the Oklahoma State Cowboys last week, it’s the spread.

Now as strong as the Seminoles are, and as bad as the Tigers look, can the 70.5 point spread really be justified?

Argument for Florida State to cover

Last week Savannah State couldn’t overcome a 65.5 point spread against the Cowboys and took an 84-0 shellacking.  Florida State is ranked 12 spots higher than Oklahoma State and are a slightly stronger team overall.  Even if the Seminoles only played their starters for a half it would still be a massive blowout, and the team’s backups are surely stronger than Savannah State’s starters.

Combine that with the fact that the Tigers have lost seven of their past 11 games by 30-plus points, and they have an offense that has only scored one touchdown in the last five games, and you have a recipe for a good old-fashioned beatdown.  Not to mention that any form of bet that takes Savannah State over Florida State just sounds totally insane.  Kind of like when Krusty the Clown bet all his money against the Harlem Globetrotters.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfbUtcsIaTQ

Argument to take the points and Savannah State

Florida State isn’t going to be focused on covering the spread, but rather just escaping the game without any injuries.  So they may look to just run the ball and the clock out as the second half progresses.

Also, you have to consider the pride factor for Savannah State. With the spread now garnering
this game a lot of attention they may have a little extra in the tank and find a way to score a touchdown or two.  Just consider the enormity of the task that beating a team by 70-plus points would entail.  If the Tigers can somehow find a way to get one touchdown, they would force the Seminoles to put up almost 80 points to cover.  Again, Oklahoma State did it last week, but by no means is that any easy task.

————————————————————————————————————-

The reason Savannah State scheduled these first two games was financial.  The school is taking in
about $860,000 for playing the Seminoles and Cowboys.  While the extra money for the program is all well and good, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to shatter the confidence of your football team.

This game is a great illustration of the genius that is the point spread.  If you were just picking a
winner there would be no intrigue at all as everyone would put money on Florida State.  Now with the spread being so high it really makes you weigh all the factors.  It’s too bad Savannah State alum and hall of fame tight end Shannon Sharpe couldn’t sign up for an online course and return this week to help prevent the Seminoles from covering the spread.

 

Around the Web