Fantasy Football: Buy Low, Sell High Candidates
Is your fantasy football team in need of a season changing, year-defining, blockbuster trade? Evaluate your roster for potential players you can sell high, or look around the league at players who you can buy low.
Your “sell-high-guys” will be players who are playing much above their career averages. These are the players who are living a little too well, and are sure to come back down to reality. Next, evaluate players on other rosters who are battling some tough times as of late, are most likely in a slump. “Buy-low-guys” could be battling a number of obstacles, but bottom line is that there owners are disgruntled and are looking for a quick fix.
Here are two examples of prime buy low and sell high players. Each due to different circumstances, and each of who will yield a prime ROT; return on a trade.
WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
Johnson was a clear cut first round draft pick by fantasy owners this year. With that high value, come high expectations. Unfortunately, Johnson and Matthew Stafford have only connected for 29 receptions, 423 yards, and most surprisingly, only 1 touchdown through 5 weeks. Needless to say, after Week 4 against the Minnesota Vikings, where Johnson only caught 5 passes for 54 yards, owners who drafted Megatron are disgruntled.
Fantasy football owners are an emotional breed, and playing off these emotions can land you a blockbuster deal. Is it rational that Johnson will keep up these, by his standards, anemic numbers? No way. Coming off a Week 5 bye, the Lions have been game planning all week to feed the beast. In 2011, Johnson caught 10 touchdowns and went for over 1,000 yards in away games. The next 4 out of 5 games will be on the road for Detroit. Put in a trade offer before this Sunday, as this resilient wide out is sure to pick up the pace.
Who To Give Up
Drafting the coveted Megatron in the first round undoubtedly left some holes in someone’s roster. They are most likely in need of running back help, as runners went off the board early this year. If you have a platoon of backs, a mid tier running back and wide receiver could entice a trade. I recently pulled this off in one of my leagues where I have a stable of running steeds. I put together Matt Forte and Stevie Johnson, and came away with Calvin. Sure, Forte will have a solid year, but now I have magically turned a mediocre Johnson into an awesome Johnson. Aren’t there pills for that too?
RB Steven Ridley, New England Patriots
Ridley has established himself as the lead back in New England, and for good reason. So far he has averaged over 20 carries and almost 100 yards a game, with 4 touchdowns to boot. In weeks 4 and 5 he ran for 106 and 151 yards respectively, with 3 combined touchdowns. His value is off the charts right now.
It takes a lot more cohunes to sell a player at their peak, than it does to try to buy low on a slumping player. This is a guy who has produced for your team, and to trade him seems illogical. Why mess with what works?
Here’s why: He splits carries with two other running backs, in an offense known for spreading the ball around. Last week, Brandon Bolden got 14 carries, and Danny Woodhead rushed 7 times. If you can pick the hot hand in New England week to week, take your talents to Las Vegas immediately. Is it reasonable to think the Patriots will run this much all year? Have they shifted from a high octane passing attack, to a ground and pound game? Most likely not, as last week was more of a game plan situation against the 23rd ranked Denver Bronco rush defense. This will likely not be the case against the 4th ranked Seattle Seahawks rushing defense in Week 6.
Who To Target?
Obviously, if you are sparse at running back, trading away Ridley is not the right option for you. Selling high is for the rich and risky looking to double up. Of course, depending on what position you need help at, and what the other team has to offer, Ridley will command a solid offering in the market. I would target either one top tier player or two mid tier players to add to your team’s depth. Can you get a Jimmy Graham for Ridley straight up? Sure, why not? Shoot for the stars for this hot running back, and always be willing to put two owners in competition with each other to drive the price up. Posting your “Sell-high-guy” to the message board is always a good idea to get conversations started as well. That being said, use your best judgment in all of your dealings, and if it doesn’t feel right, trust your gut
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