Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE
The NFL season is starting to hit its stride with Week 3 getting going tonight when the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants travel to take on quarterback Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers, and fantasy football owners all over are either riding high with a 2-0 start, ready to overhaul their entire roster at 0-2 or somewhere in between at 1-1.
As I have done over the first two weeks, I will highlight players I feel like have nice upside potential this week (“studs”) and those I feel have significant downside (“duds”). I try to avoid obvious players that no owner would bench outside of their bye week. though some of those players do become worthy of consideration if I feel they have significant upside or downside in a particular week.
With that, here are my “Studs And Duds” for Week 3.
Quarterbacks
Stud-Matt Stafford, Detroit Lions
Stafford has not looked particularly good in the season’s first two games, with just two touchdown passes and four interceptions. But he has completed close to 64 percent of his passes and averaged over 292 passing yards per game thus far, and a nice matchup is coming in Week 3 against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have allowed 19.0 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (ESPN standard scoring) in two games, with five touchdown passes allowed and just one interception. It’s fair to mention the Titans have faced a couple of very good signal callers in Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, but Stafford at least belongs in the conversation with those two among the league’s best quarterbacks. Look for Stafford to have a big game on Sunday, and begin to justify the price fantasy owners paid on draft day.
Dud- Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Rivers has had a solid start to 2012, and was particularly good against the Titans in Week 2 with 284 passing yards and three touchdowns along with an interception. The Chargers will likely welcome running back Ryan Mathews back for Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons, which may lead to more running in what looks like a tougher matchup for Rivers anyway. The Falcons notably intercepted Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning three times in the first quarter of their Week 2 game, and if not for allowing a rushing touchdown to Matt Cassel of the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 their fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (11.5 per game) would be even lower. Rivers threw a career-high 20 interceptions in 2011, so we know he’ll occasionally force throws and his aggressiveness may get the best of him this week if the Falcons are able to build a lead.
Running Backs
Stud- Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns
Richardson rebounded after a dismal Week 1 with 145 total yards (109 rushing) and two total touchdowns against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2, and he now looks 100 percent healthy after preseason knee surgery. Week 3 brings a nice matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who have allowed 232 rushing yards (4.4 yards per carry) to opposing running backs through two games this season. So we can expect the Browns’ offense to feature Richardson heavily again on Sunday, and it would not be surprising to see him get more than 20 carries in a game for the first time in his career. The rookie from Alabama has legit upside as a RB1 this week, and could set the stage for a stellar rookie season with a second straight strong performance.
Dud-Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
Johnson has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football so far, with just 21 rushing yards on 19 carries along with eight catches for 58 yards through two games. Despite those struggles, Titans’ head coach Mike Munchak has said Johnson will not lose his starting job heading into Week 3 against the Detroit Lions. The Lions have not been particularly generous to opposing running backs, ranking around the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed, but any potential split in the workload with Javon Ringer would be bad news for Johnson’s chances to rebound. Johnson’s production can really only go up from here on out, but fantasy owners that have other options may want to bench him this week and see how he performs.
Wide Receivers
Stud-Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys
Given the dismal performance of the team against the Seattle Seahawks, it’s easy to overlook that Austin had five catches for 63 yards and caught a touchdown for the second straight game to open the season. His hamstring issues look to be in the rearview mirror, for now at least, heading into a very favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. The Buccaneers have alllowed the most receiving yards (648) to opposing wide receivers so far this season, including 414 yards to the New York Giants’ wide receivers last week. The Cowboys have similar talent at the position with Dez Bryant also in the mix, and it’s likely Bryant will draw Tampa Bay’s top corner in Aqib Talib for most of Sunday’s game. That means Austin should be lining up across from an inferior player for much of the game, and should see plenty of targets to boot. Owners that drafted Austin and have been hesitant to start him should have no such concerns this week.
Dud- Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
Thomas has emerged as Peyton Manning’s top target through the first two games of the season, with a total of 13 receptions for 188 yards and a touchdown in each game. Things may change some in that regard in Week 3 against the Houston Texans, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Texans have not exactly faced elite wide receivers against the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars through the first two weeks of the season, but they will certainly look to get after Manning and force him to get rid of the ball quickly. That likely means shorter throws, and may lead to Eric Decker seeing more targets than Thomas during Sunday’s game. It would certainly take guts to bench Thomas due to his potential upside even in a tough matchup, but I feel he has significant downside this week and is benchable for those who have other options.
Tight Ends
Stud- Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions
Pettigrew only had three catches for 18 yards against the San Francisco 49ers last week, but he did catch his first touchdown of the season in the game. He should be able to put up better numbers in Week 3 against the Tennessee Titans, who have allowed the most catches (20), yards (227) and touchdowns (five) to opposing tight ends thus far. The Titans did face the elite level tight ends of the New England Patriots in Week 1, but also allowed three touchdown catches to Dante Rosario of the San Diego Chargers in Week 2 when Antonio Gates was inactive. Pettigrew falls somewhere between elite and unknown among the league’s tight ends right now, but he should see plenty of targets from Matt Stafford as the Detroit offense should move the ball fairly easily on Sunday.
Dud- Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers
Finley had just four receptions for 26 yards against the Chicago Bears, as he failed to take advantage of the absence of wide receiver Greg Jennings (groin) in the game and come anywhere close to repeating his three-touchdown performance against the Bears in 2011. Jennings is expected to play in next Monday night’s game against the Seattle Seahawks on the road, and it looks like a tough matchup for Finley regardless of Jennings’ status. The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends (4.5 per game, ESPN scoring), and were able to hold Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys relatively in check last week with four catches for 58 yards that included a 23-yard gain on one reception. Finley is hard to consider benching given the upside he has, but the potential for a second straight dismal game is here this week.
Review of Week 2 “Studs And Duds
Quarterbacks
Stud- Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers- 14-for-20, 253 yards, one touchdown; 13 carries for 71 yards, one touchdown
Verdict: Low-End Stud
Dud- Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles- 23-for-32 for 371 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions; 10 carries for 34 yards, one touchdown
Verdict: Stud
Running Backs
Stud- Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders- 11 carries for 22 yards; two receptions for 19 yards
Verdict: Dud
Dud- Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons- 17 carries for 42 yards, one touchdown; one reception for zero yards
Verdict: Low-End, Touchdown-Heavy League Stud
Wide Receivers
Stud- A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals- seven receptions for 58 yards, one touchdown
Verdict: Low-End Stud
Dud- DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles- seven receptions for 114 yards
Verdict: Middle Of The Road Stud
Tight Ends
Stud- Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers- Inactive
Verdict: Dud
Dud- Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys- four receptions for 58 yards
Verdict: Dud
