Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Week 2 Preview

The Minnesota Vikings (1-0) travel to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time in franchise history to take on the Indianapolis Colts (0-1) on Sunday. This may be the first time the Vikings have played in Lucas Oil Stadium, but not the first time the Vikings have taken on the Colts on the road. The Vikings have never beat Indianapolis at home and are currently 0-9 in those games.

After winning against AFC South opponent Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, the Vikings will try and improve to 2-0. The Colts on the other hand lost by 20 points to NFC North opponent Chicago Bears on Sunday and will look for their first win of the season in their home opener.

I think the biggest thing to watch in this game is going to be third down conversions. Both teams struggled to convert third downs in their first games, and the Vikings struggled to stop Jacksonville on third down and gave up 50 percent first down conversions on third downs. That will be the deciding factor of winning this contest I think.

Both teams were 2 for 10 on third downs last week, but I think Indianapolis should do a better job converting. Quarterback Andrew Luck missed a couple of targets high and other receivers dropped passes for a sure third down conversion. Those are mistakes from the Colts and nothing Chicago forced outside of a good pass rush.

Minnesota won’t get as good of a pass rush on Luck and frankly isn’t anywhere close to as good as the Bears. If Minnesota wants to win they need a big day out of Adrian Peterson to keep the Colts defense at bay.

Peterson rushed for 84 yards on 17 attempts against Jacksonville and scored two touchdowns. He needs decent gains on first and second down to give the Vikings short yardage on third downs. If Minnesota if facing anything more than third and five, they will struggle to convert. It’s tough to win games when they can’t convert and allowing the opposition to keep drives going. It’s even harder to do that on the road.

I expect the Colts secondary to do a better job as Minnesota’s receivers aren’t as big or tall as Chicago’s. Percy Harvin and Devin Aromashodu aren’t very tall and the Colts corners don’t give up as much height. Now, both are fast, but I don’t see the Colts corners having to struggle to defend them. Neither are play makers when defended well.

Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder isn’t the best in the league and is hoping to lead the Vikings to a better season after struggling in his rookie campaign. Ponder was decent last week in going 20 for 27 with 270 yards. He had zero touchdowns, but didn’t turn the ball over either. He’s a game manager right now and not someone that’s going to beat you. If the Colts can get a good pass rush and play tighter coverage I can see Ponder making some bad decisions.

He will have to fend off Robert Mathis from getting a sack for his fifth straight game as he earned two last week in Chicago including the first play of the game. Fellow linebacker Jerrell Freeman made a good name for himself in leading Indianapolis in tackles last week with 13. If Dwight Freeney is healthy, Mathis plays like he did last week, and Freeman continues to be a ball hawk, the Vikings offense will be in for a long day.

On the other side of the ball I look for Luck to have a better day. The Vikings don’t bring anything special and play a little more relaxed coverage. I expect Reggie Wayne to have yet another big day as he had over 100 yards receiving last week and nine receptions. In the Colts’ last meeting with the Vikings, Wayne had five receptions for 93 yards, and a touchdown. He’s got a streak of his own in catching a pass in 96 straight regular season games. Expect that to extend through this week.

Another bonus for the Colts this week is they will have a healthy Austin Collie playing. Collie suffered his fourth concussion of his career in the second preseason game against the Pittsburgh and has been out since. This week, Collie was medically cleared and will play Sunday. Mix Wayne, Collie, Donnie Avery, LaVon Brazill, and rookie tight end Coby Fleener, and that’s a tough bunch to stop.

Prediction:

Like I said I think this game will come down to who can convert on third down and who can stop the opposition on third down. I think the Colts are a better football team this year than the Vikings and will prevail.

Colts 31 Vikings 20