Word out of Florida is that the Miami Dolphins will be looking to make a strong push to land impending Green Bay Packers free agent Greg Jennings. I personally like Mike Wallace better, but I am starting to like Jennings more than Dwayne Bowe (my wish list order used to be Wallace, Bowe and then Jennings). I am not all the way to where I think Miami can (or should) land Jennings, but let’s take a look…
I certainly understand the fascination with Jennings. Since 2008, the Dolphins have had three wide receivers gain at least 900 receiving yards (Brandon Marshall twice and this season Brian Hartline did it) but in that same span Jennings has had 900+ five times. There is massive appeal with his ability to score, too. In their three 900+ yard seasons, Marshall and Hartline combined for a measly 10 touchdowns. They caught a lot of passes, but they did not put points on the scoreboard. In the five seasons that Jennings went north of 900+ receiving yards he averaged nine touchdowns (he scored a whopping 46 touchdowns in those seasons…wow – that is massive production).
The Packers are likely going to part way with Jennings, as they have a ton of depth at the wide receiver position. Randall Cobb is a stud-in-the-making and he is just 22 years old. Jordy Nelson has 22 touchdowns the past two seasons, he is just 27. James Jones has 21 touchdowns the past two seasons and he is just 28. These guys have developed wonderful chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, while it appears that Jennings’ relationship with Rodgers may be on the decline.
The reason I am slightly on the fence here is that the price-tag that will come with Jennings is sure to be a doozy. We can compare him to Vincent Jackson, and his five-year, $55 million contract ($26 million guaranteed). These two have similar numbers in their careers (when healthy) and actually Jennings is a tad better. In the six seasons where V-Jax played 13+ games he averaged 972 receiving yards with seven touchdowns. In the six seasons where Jennings has played 13+ games he averages 1,029 yards with eight touchdowns.
The last contract that Jennings signed was a four-year deal worth $27 million with about $3 million in incentives. $16.25 of that was guaranteed. He made a pair of Pro Bowl’s since then, and we know he will be looking for a raise.
If the Dolphins do pursue one of the big three free agent wide receivers it would surely mean they will not be re-signing Jake Long, and it likely also means that at least one (possibly two) of Reggie Bush, Sean Smith or Randy Starks would be gone too.
I cannot imagine that Jennings is looking to go from Rodgers to Ryan Tannehill, but a Vincent Jackson-sized contract could raise his interest. I am not sold that Joe Philbin would be an asset in trying to land Jennings as Philbin did not call the plays during his time with Jennings and the Packers so Jennings may not see a link between his on-field success and Philbin.
We will watch this story closely…
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